WILMINGTON — This was once a quaint, coastal town, all cobblestone and sand dunes. When Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo graduated from high school in 1978, the vast majority of the graduating class hightailed it out of here as fast as they could. There were no jobs and no prospects.
Now, it’s bursting at the seams with businesses and opportunities.
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How to manage this influx of people — many from the northeastern United States — is a topic of debate.
It’s also a question whose answer will shape the city’s future.
No room to grow in Wilmington
Just 192 square miles of land, New Hanover County, home to Wilmington, is surrounded on three sides by water: the Cape Fear River and the Atlantic Ocean. Nearly every last corner of the peninsula is developed. There’s nowhere for the city to grow.
As a result, bedroom communities in Brunswick County to the south have exploded in recent years, making it the fastest-growing county in the state at 22% growth between 2020 and 2024. Pender County, immediately to the north of Wilmington, ranked second.
While the population burst has created more economic and cultural opportunities in Wilmington and the surrounding area, there are those worried about the loss of the region’s wetlands and forests as well as its sense of identity.
To others, Wilmington’s booming populace should be celebrated instead of criticized.
“There is no such thing as overdevelopment,” said Cameron Moore, president of the Wilmington Home Builders Association. “It’s all in the eye of the beholder. I’m not going to apologize for the fact that the city is growing.”
The pandemic brought hoards of people who found remote work and realized they could live anywhere. The region is becoming ever more popular with retirees. UNC-Wilmington is the fastest-growing school in the UNC System.
All that leads many to wonder if the city’s infrastructure — schools, roads and medical systems — can support this rapid growth.
Survey says
A survey in 2023 found that 55% of Wilmington residents cited growth and development as their primary concerns about living in the city, followed by traffic congestion and affordable housing.
But opinions on growth vary widely.
Some are happy that Wilmington is booming.
“I’d rather live in a community that’s growing and thriving, a place where people want to be,” said Liz Carbone, an affordable housing consultant, “rather than in a rural community, like some of our neighbors in North Carolina, where their communities are dying, people are actively moving away, property values are plummeting, jobs are drying up and there’s no tax base to do anything inventive or helpful or progressive.”
But some feel like they are losing the town they love.
“I’ve been here since I was a kid,” said Kerri Allen, a program director at North Carolina Coastal Federation, a regional environmental group. “I’m not sure if, with five or 10 more years of growth, this is going to be a place I’m going to want to live because the place’s identity has already shifted so much. This was never something I considered. I always planned on being here forever.
“I understand why people want to move here and live here. But I think balancing that development with the things that make our community special is paramount.”
But when does rapid development cross into overdevelopment? It’s a question that the city is grappling with.
Money for nothing
As home prices rise and more luxury apartments go up, families who have lived in Wilmington for generations are being priced out of the rental market. Many people can no longer afford to live in the place where they grew up.
In 2023, for example, a survey found more than 34% of Wilmington households were “cost burdened,” meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on rent.
Also consider that the median home sale price in Wilmington has doubled over the last decade. In 2014, the median price was just over $200,000. Now, it’s more than $400,000 — unattainable for many residents.
“We were having teachers, policemen, firemen, nurses and health care workers who couldn’t afford to live in New Hanover County,” explained New Hanover County Commissioner Rob Zapple. “They move to Pender County or Brunswick County because they can’t afford to live here.”
Even though the sight of yet another condominium complex going up is nauseating for some, there is a housing shortage in the city. An additional 20,000 units are needed to support projected population growth, according to county commissioners.
Still, Carbone says the idea that building more houses and apartments will fix the problem is short-sighted if people can’t afford the mortgage or rent.
“The mom who works in a preschool and also works at Panera and is paying double what she should be paying in her rent doesn’t have 30 years for that apartment that you build at market rate to become affordable to her,” Carbone said.
Wilmington growth a ‘double-edged sword’
As more buildings go up in the delicate coastal landscape, some mourn the cutting of live oaks and longleaf pines. They worry about the future of the bass in the Cape Fear, the dolphins in the Intracoastal Waterway and the sea turtles in the Atlantic Ocean.
When soil is replaced with impervious surfaces like parking lots and roads, rainwater can’t seep into the ground where it would naturally be filtered. Instead, it flows directly into waterways, carrying pollutants with it.
“We have pretty strong scientific studies that suggest that once about 10% of the watershed is developed, you start to see really big declines in water quality,” Allen said. “Once that number climbs to about 30% of the watershed being built out, you start to see irrevocable damage.”
Saffo, who has led the city since 2006, sees the region’s tremendous growth as a “double-edged sword.” The transformation has been rife with growing pains.
“The central question is: How do we manage this?” Saffo told Carolina Public Press. “I just don’t think this is going to slow down anytime soon.”
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