Delaying this path could create space for alternative scenarios — as seen in Georgia. In June 2014, Georgia signed its Association Agreement with the EU, officially declaring European integration a strategic priority. However, foreign trade patterns between 2014 and 2024 show a different reality.
In 2014, the EU’s share of Georgia’s trade was 32 percent, and Russia’s 9 percent. By 2020, the EU’s share fell to 24 percent while Russia’s rose to 14 percent. In 2024, the EU’s share is about 25 percent while Russia’s is estimated at 16 percent. This shift reflects the political course of the Georgian Dream party — founded by a Russian billionaire of Georgian origin, Bidzina Ivanishvili — which emphasizes improved relations with Russia and a more cautious approach to Euro-Atlantic integration. As a result, Georgia is drifting back toward the post-Soviet space, where Russia remains dominant.
The EU’s autonomous trade measures regime, which enabled simplified access for Ukrainian products, will expire on June 5, 2025. As that date approaches, uncertainty is growing over what the future trade framework will look like, especially amid internal EU debates over sensitive commodities.
It is essential to protect the strategic framework of cooperation and avoid actions that could erode mutual trust. The EU, as Ukraine’s principal trade and political partner, has both a practical and moral interest in maintaining open, predictable access for Ukrainian goods.
Concerns center around products such as sugar, poultry, eggs and bioethanol. Discussions over possible restrictions are fueled by certain industry associations defending national agricultural interests. These dynamic risks politicizing trade and jeopardizing the broader partnership.
In this context, it is essential to protect the strategic framework of cooperation and avoid actions that could erode mutual trust. The EU, as Ukraine’s principal trade and political partner, has both a practical and moral interest in maintaining open, predictable access for Ukrainian goods – this is the basis for economic integration and for jointly strengthening the single market.
It is time to shift the narrative promoted by lobbying organizations in the EU that reduce the partnership to debates over agricultural competition. Such a narrow focus distorts the full picture and endangers a relationship that has value well beyond trade in a few commodities.
From a geopolitical and geoeconomics point of view, Ukraine should not only remain part of the European economic space, but be systematically and permanently embedded within it. Deepening integration with Ukraine gives the EU new tools to reinforce its strategic autonomy and compete globally, especially in light of growing challenges from both the United States and China.