Welcoming in two expansion teams is going to change PWHL dramatically

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The Toronto Sceptres know, just like the rest of the existing PWHL, that no team is coming back the same as they were a year ago.

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Expansion into Seattle and Vancouver and the league’s emphasis on parity will ensure that.

Each existing team will lose four players between the incoming clubs exclusive free agent signing window and the expansion draft that will follow giving each of the two new clubs a 12-player roster ahead of the annual college and international draft.

The six existing teams will be able to protect three players and then one more after they have lost two between the signing window and the actual expansion draft.

It means every team is going to lose key players as the new outfits in Vancouver and Seattle are stocked to make them immediately competitive with their six existing sister clubs.

Those six clubs will make their initial three-player protected lists public at noon on Tuesday. The two newbies will then have from 9 a.m. the following day through 5 p.m. on June 8th to decide if they want to take advantage of the exclusive window to dip into the free agent pool of players. These players are not protected and will eventually be made available to the entire league but for five days Vancouver and Seattle will get first crack at luring them out west.

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The catch for the new clubs is that for every free agent they sign during this period – they can sign up to a maximum of five each — that’s one less player they can grab in the expansion draft. Conversely, for the teams that lose a free agent in this period, that loss counts towards the total of four players they will lose in the overall expansion process.

In any event, it’s going to mean for some very difficult decisions for the six existing teams and some tempting choices for the two newcomers.

WHAT FACTORS IN TO PROTECTION DECISIONS?

It’s not strictly talent that will make the protection list decision so difficult for any of the clubs and that includes Toronto.

Established leadership is obviously not something anyone is looking to lose. It’s that leadership that sets the tone and ensures the culture a club has built over two years is sustained.

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In their media introductions both new GMs – Meghan Turner in Seattle and Cara Gardner Morey in Vancouver – listed establishing leadership on the roster as a key goal in the expansion draft.

It could very well mean that the two building teams overlook age considerations – at least at times — and opt for the experience of a Boston forward and U.S. legend like Hilary Knight or Ottawa forward and Canadian legend Brianne Jenner. Both are currently captains with their respective clubs but could very well be left unprotected in the draft because both are in the latter stages of their career.

Seeing Knight winding up in Seattle with Carter, the Fleet’s former assistant GM or Jenner winding up in Vancouver providing both teams key leaders could be a very real possibility.

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Position will also factor in. As important as scoring and speed is up front, good puck-moving defenders who play a physical brand of hockey are probably a little more valued in this league. In that respect, defenders may have a bit of a higher value going into the process. Certainly Montreal, with the likelihood that will protect the Canadian National team trio of Marie-Philip Poulin, Laura Stacey and goaltender Ann-Renee Desbiens, could be an early target for both expansion clubs with the likes of defenders Cayla Barnes and Erin Ambrose likely exposed.

Then there’s the money. While the two new teams do not have to be cap compliant until the 2025-26 schedule begins, they don’t want to be in a position by that date where they will have to unload salary in order to stay within league rules.

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Age will also be a factor. The league’s desire to ensure immediate contention for the incoming teams means loading up for a Cup run in Year 1 will be a possible path.

The question becomes do you do so at a cost to your roster’s long term sustainability? The likely answer is both Vancouver and Seattle will build with an eye towards the future which should put a premium on young talent as well.

Players like Hannah Bilka in Boston, should she be left unprotected or Danielle Serdachny in Ottawa and Julia Gosling in Toronto would all be players that would attract an expansion team’s interest if they are available.

WHO WILL TORONTO PROTECT?

Taking all that into account we believe the initial Toronto protection list will be made up of defender Renata Fast, forward Blayre Turnbull and forward Daryl Watts.

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The obvious player left out in this mix is forward Sarah Nurse, one of Toronto’s three foundational signings when the league first began and a very good bet to be snapped up early in the expansion draft process if she’s unprotected.

Nurse is coming off an injury-plagued second season that limited her to just 21 games, but she still finished fifth on the team with 14 points.  She’s also ninth overall in all-time scoring in the league.

It’s going to be a tough one for everyone in the organization to swallow should that come to pass, but that’s how the league has set this up. Every team is going to lose players they would otherwise have no intention of letting get away.

WHO DOES T.O. LOSE IN FREE AGENCY WINDOW?

Another tough one to stomach but, again, one many are expecting, even dreading, is to see veteran forward Hannah Miller scooped up during this part of the process. Miller is a proven goal soccer with a fine track record as the trigger on many of Toronto’s successful power plays. She amassed 13 of her 24 points, second on the team last season, on that powerplay. Like Nurse, she’s a top 10 scorer all-time in the league.  She’s a savvy veteran who just knows where to be and when to be there not to mention her solid numbers in the faceoff circle when she slots in as a centre. She’s been versatile and agreeable to everything the Toronto coaching staff has asked of her. The fact that she is a native of North Vancouver makes her that much more of a good bet to wind up being taken by Vancouver.

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The Sceptres first two American-born players could also attract attention at this point in the process. Defender Kali Flanagan and forward Jesse Compher have both played key roles in Toronto’s success to date, Flanagan as part of Troy Ryan’s second defensive pairing beside Allie Munroe and Compher as a hard-nosed forward with a real nose for the net that came into focus in Year 2 when she finished fourth in team scoring with 18 points, nine of those goals. Flanagan would steady an expansion team’s blue line immediately while Compher is capable of playing anywhere from first to third line and contributing offensively regardless.

TORONTO’S FOURTH PROTECTION

As soon as a total of two Sceptres find their way onto either the Vancouver or Seattle rosters, Toronto will have the opportunity to add a fourth protected player. Another tough decision particularly if Nurse is still there, but factoring in age and style of play, we believe the Sceptres will put that protection on 25-year-old forward Emma Maltais.

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Maltais, who was a third round pick in the inaugural PWHL draft, is a tireless checker who packs a punch in the physical aspect of the game for a player that stands just 5-foot-2. She has yet to show the kind of scoring that Nurse can provide but being five years younger gives Maltais the nod on this one.

The most likely scenario is Toronto loses just one player in the exclusive free agent window – likely Miller— and Nurse is the first member of the Sceptres picked in the expansion draft which likely makes Maltais the fourth protected player.

SO, WHO ELSE DOES TORONTO LOSE?

Just one writer’s guess, but the Sceptres see Miller signed during the exclusive free agency window and then, in order, lose forward Sarah Nurse, defender Savannah Harmon and young and promising forward Julia Gosling. All of these losses will hurt but it will be a pain all of the original teams share.

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ANOTHER SCENARIO

The expansion clubs opt for youth over experience and take defender Megan Carter meaning Harmon remains in Toronto.

WHAT ABOUT TORONTO GOALIES?

Had Kristen Campbell finished the year on a high following her goaltender of the year award in Year 1, we might have expected her to be selected. But with the potential for the likes of Ottawa’s Emerance Maschmeyer and Minnesota’s Nicole Hensley likely available in the draft and the potential to secure goaltenders like Boston backup Klara Peslarova or Minneota’s Maddie Rooney in free agency, it seems unlikely the Toronto goaltenders would be targeted.

Keep in mind all of this is pure speculation. As the free agents are signed, the league will make that news available to the media and the expansion draft itself will be covered in real time.

A PERSPECTIVE THAT SHOULD HELP

One of the best things about this league is that any team on any given night can beat another. The hurt a fanbase and even members within an organization feel when they lose a player in this process is going to be real, but if everyone does their job properly, the league will still be as competitive from top to bottom as it has been since its inception and that is the ultimate goal in this process.

mganter@postmedia.com 

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