Russian forces are marking a significant milestone today, according to the country’s state media, after they captured a village in the Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk for the first time since launching their full-scale invasion over three years ago.
The Russian capture of the village of Dahnoye is yet to be confirmed by Ukrainian officials or the Russian defence ministry. But, if media reports prove accurate, this advance will deal a heavy psychological blow to Kyiv.
While Dnipropetrovsk borders the now largely occupied regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, this would be the first populated area in the Dnipropetrovsk region itself to fall to Moscow.
At present, roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory is under Russian control. In the east and south-east, Moscow occupies Crimea, over 99% of Luhansk region and 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. It has also seized small pieces of territory in the north-eastern Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
Dnipropetrovsk developments aside, Ukrainians are digesting the news of another alarming precedent: over the weekend, Russian troops seized control of a Ukrainian mineral deposit for the first time since Zelensky and Trump signed their much-touted minerals deal.
The deposit-in-question, a lithium reserve just outside the Shevchenko village in the Donetsk region, is relatively small, covering just 100 acres. However, it was considered one of Ukraine’s most valuable, thanks to the high quality of its ore.
Ukraine still has two other major lithium reserves available for development and located in the central part of the country, well beyond the front lines, at least for now. But, even before last weekend’s seizure of the Shevchenko deposit, Russia has already taken control of at least two Ukrainian lithium reserves during the war: one in Donetsk and one in the Zaporizhzhia region. More generally, a little over £6 trillion of Ukraine’s mineral resources are thought to be contained in the four eastern regions Putin illegally annexed in September 2022, primarily in Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. And the region of Dnipropetrovsk where Russian troops reportedly made their breakthrough today contains an estimated £2.8 trillion in mineral resources.
Zelensky has bigged up the value of Ukraine’s minerals, promising to give Washington a future stake in the extracted wealth to provide Trump with an economic incentive to invest in Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction once a peace deal is eventually signed.
But the longer the war goes on, the fewer resources Kyiv may have on offer to persuade him to guarantee the country’s future security. Russia’s continued advance on the battlefield threatens to erode the value of any minerals pact.
This arguably increases the urgency for Kyiv to sign a peace deal before it loses any more of its leverage. But we are yet to see any sign that Moscow is interested in winding down its offensive or willing to make any compromises to secure peace.
On the contrary, an estimated 50,000 Russian troops are thought to be massed in the northeastern Sumy region, preparing for a major new offensive. Ukrainian soldiers in the region warn that they’re at risk of being outnumbered by three to one.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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