U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to re-impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum imports is rocking Canadian industries, but may also be giving them a case of deja vu.
During his first term in 2018, Trump slapped duties on steel and aluminum while the U.S. was in the middle of renegotiating a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
Trump cited those difficult talks at the time, suggesting the two were related.
Trump is pursuing an even more aggressive tariff strategy this time, which will likely inform negotiations during next year’s scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Canada and Mexico are still trying to avoid more sweeping tariffs on all exports to the U.S. that are currently on hold until March.
Here’s how Trump’s first steel and aluminum tariffs played out alongside the talks that led to CUSMA, and how we got to this point:
May 18, 2017: The Trump administration formally kicks off free trade talks by informing Congress it will renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) within 90 days.
Aug. 16, 2017: NAFTA negotiations officially begin between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The talks drag on for over a year, with Trump making big demands for American access to Canadian and Mexican markets. Canada holds firm and even threatens to walk away from the negotiations multiple times.
March 2018: Trump announces his intent to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all foreign steel imports and a 10 per cent tariff on aluminum imports, setting a June 1 date for the duties to take effect.
Trump says the tariffs are necessary to protect American producers and U.S. national security. He also says Canada can avoid the tariffs if a “new & fair NAFTA agreement” is signed and reiterates his key demands for market access.
A week after his announcement, Trump says Canada and Mexico will be exempt from the tariffs for an undetermined period.
April 30, 2018: Trump extends the exemptions for Canada and Mexico for another 30 days to allow for further negotiations, while also signing exemptions for four other countries: Brazil, South Korea, Australia and Argentina.
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May 31, 2018: The U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico go into effect, with the Trump administration citing the NAFTA negotiations taking “longer than we had hoped.”
Canada announces its intent to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.
July 1, 2018: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect on $16.6 billion in U.S. exports to Canada. Targeted products include steel, aluminum, Harley Davidson motorcycles, American whiskey, Florida orange juice and ketchup. The government deliberately targets products with large manufacturing bases in the states of key Republicans who support Trump.
Steel pipe maker Tenaris SA temporarily lays off 40 workers and reorganizes its production in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., the first publicly-disclosed job losses in Canada resulting from the U.S. steel tariffs.
Sept. 30, 2018: Canada, the U.S. and Mexico announce they have reached a deal on an updated version of NAFTA, which will be known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or CUSMA in Canada.
Nov. 30, 2018: Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and outgoing Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto formally sign the new trade agreement at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
January-March 2019: Canada, Mexico and even some U.S. Republican lawmakers say they won’t ratify CUSMA until the Trump administration lifts its steel and aluminum tariffs.
Separately, Trump boasts that he got Canada to agree to the new trade deal after threatening additional tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles and other products.
May 17, 2019: The U.S. and Canada announce an agreement to lift tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. Both governments lift their respective tariffs three days later.
A day after the deal is announced, Canada says it will work to quickly ratify CUSMA.
August 2019: Statistics Canada releases data on the impacts of tariffs on trade showing exports of both steel and aluminum to the U.S. falling sharply after May 2018. Steel exports fell 38 per cent in June 2018 and by May 2019 were at their lowest level in almost 10 years. Aluminum exports were on average 19 per cent lower per month during the year the tariffs were in place, compared to 2017, and fell by over 50 per cent overall.
March 13, 2020: Parliament ratifies CUSMA through an expedited process due to the COVID-19 pandemic, six weeks after Trump signed the deal into law.
July 1, 2020: CUSMA officially takes effect.
Aug. 6, 2020: Trump announces a plan to impose a new 10 per cent tariff on Canadian aluminum imports, taking effect on Aug. 16, 2020. Canada vows to retaliate.
Sept. 15, 2020: The U.S. calls off the tariffs, agreeing to withdraw current penalties before Canada’s retaliatory measures take effect.
May 2024: The U.S. Tax Foundation releases a report saying the steel and aluminum tariffs during Trump’s first term had a negative impact on the U.S. economy, causing an estimated 75,000 job losses.
Nov. 5, 2024: Trump wins re-election after promising repeatedly during his presidential campaign that he will pursue an aggressive tariff policy in his second term. He also took aim at Canadian and Mexican auto manufacturing and promised to reopen CUSMA to address “unfairness” and loopholes exploited by China.
Nov. 25, 2024: Trump threatens to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products on his first day in office, due to border security issues around fentanyl and illegal immigration. He later adds the trade imbalance between Canada and the U.S. to his list of reasons for imposing tariffs.
December 2024: Canada announces a $1.3-billion plan to “bolster border security” and disrupt the flow of fentanyl. The government later says the plan will include new helicopters and other resources for RCMP and the Canada Border Services Agency.
Jan. 20, 2025: Trump signs an executive order that kickstarts public consultations and studies on the impacts CUSMA has had on American businesses, particularly farmers. Reports are due back April 1. The consultations are the first required step leading up to scheduled CUSMA review talks set for 2026.
Feb. 1, 2025: Trump signs an executive order to hit Canada with 25 per cent tariffs, with a lower 10 per cent duty for energy.
Trudeau announces Canada will respond with an immediate $30-billion retaliation package, which will be followed by $125 billion in duties on American products in 21 days to give companies and supply chains time to find alternatives. Provinces announce their own retaliatory measures, including bans on U.S. business contracts and American alcohol sales.
Feb. 3, 2025: U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico are delayed for 30 days, with Trump claiming border security concessions from both countries. Canada and the provinces also halt their moves to retaliate.
Feb. 9, 2025: Trump says he will formally announce 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, including from Canada and Mexico, the following day.
Feb. 10, 2025: Trump signs executive orders to impose the steel and aluminum tariffs starting March 12. He explicitly says there will be no exemptions, saying multiple carve-outs to his 2018 tariffs undermined his intent to revive the American steel and aluminum industries.
Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, says Trump’s previous steel and aluminum tariffs had a “devastating impact” on the industry, forcing 2,000 workers and 500 employers to rely on emergency government support.
—With files from the Canadian Press