Støre soars on security issues

Støre soars on security issues

NEWS ANALYSIS: Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and his Labour Party have soared to new heights in the latest “super poll” of voters ahead of the upcoming national election. Their remarkable rise in political fortunes is widely linked to all the public attention on national security, foreign policy and defense issues, which are viewed as Støre’s specialities.

Støre soars on security issues
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre of the Labour Party is flying high in more ways than one. In addition to taking part in this military helicopter flight over Northern Norway this week while hosting NATO’s secretary general, his party also topped all others in a new and expanded public opinion poll of Norwegian voters. PHOTO: Forsvaret/Onar Digernes Aase

“I am confident we can win,” Støre told members of the Foreign Press Association (FPA) in Oslo earlier this week. He was referring to the national election on September 8, and his remarks came just before he headed north to further boost Norway’s defense-build-up and show off current defense capabilities to the still-new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“Labour is growing, and the feedback I get is that people want a stable, secure government,” Støre added.

The new poll, conducted by research bureau Norstat for state broadcaster NRK, reveals the preferences of more than 15,000 voters nationwide, compared to the roughly 1,000 usually questioned. They were asked who they’d vote for if the election was held now, and Labour wound up with 29.4 percent.

That’s up from Labour’s election result in 2021, when it won enough (26.3 percent) to lead a left-center government. The Center Party, which only claimed 5.5 percent of the vote in the new poll, ended up leaving Støre’s government in January and in came former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to replace Center’s leader as Norway’s new finance minister. The highly popular Stoltenberg was widely viewed as rescuing Støre’s government, which at that time had fallen to less than 15 percent of the vote in some polls last fall and winter.

Støre was keen to show NATO chief Mark Rutte (far left) how Norwegian and allied forces work together, especially in Arctic areas where Russian forces are also active. Rutte, accompanied by Norway’s Permanent Representative to NATO Anita Nergaard, visited naval- and air force bases at Ramsund and Evenes, where Støre stressed “the strategic importance of the northern areas.”  PHOTO: Forsvaret/Onar Digernes Aase

Now Labour is nearly nine points ahead of Norway’s next-largest party at present, the conservative Progress Party, which claimed 20.6 percent in the new poll. Labour’s traditional arch-rival, the Conservative Party, fell to just 18.4 percent, which its own leader and former prime minister Erna Solberg admitted is “much too poor.”

Støre already seemed to be riding a new wave of support and optimism for Labour, even before NRK’s significant poll results were released on Thursday. He appeared relaxed, less-defensive and even had more colour in his cheeks at the FPA meeting on Monday morning. He’d recently posted photos of himself on social media showing how he’d found time during the weekends for seasonal treks in the hills above Oslo, and had even taken a swim in the still-chilly waters of a local lake.

He also faced another busy week ahead, launching new attempts at lowering Norway’s notoriously high food prices and drumming up support for offshore wind projects before flying north. Støre, a two-term foreign minister who’s also headed the Norwegian Red Cross and is best-known for his diplomatic skills, addressed questions from FPA members on everything from concerns over Russian interference in the upcoming election (“this is an area where democracies are under attack, we’re following that very carefully”) to the current conflict between Pakistan and India (a meeting with Indian President Narenda Modi had to recently be cancelled) and threats against vaccination programs (“we’ll be the first” to help keep them going).

Støre and Rutte posed at Norway’s naval base at Ramsund in Sør-Troms, from which vessels like the KV Svalbard patrol the Arctic. Rutte said he really “understood the importance” of the northern areas when US President Donald Trump said he wanted US control over Greenland. Rutte went on to diplomatically note that “we all agree (that) we must do more in the Arctic to secure areas.” Nordic allies also agree, however, that Greenland is “not up for sale.” PHOTO: Statsministerens kontor/Anne Kristin Hjukse

Støre is arguably paying the most attention at present, though, to the area that’s long been very important to him and what he calls “the High North.” It’s made up of not only Norway’s own vast Arctic areas (including those offshore) but now also those of new NATO allies Sweden and Finland, and involves their new abilities for defense and other cooperation. Both share borders with Norway in the north, while Norway and Finland also share borders with Russia, Finland’s much longer. That’s presented lots of new challenges to both Norway and Finland, since Russia invaded Ukraine more than three years ago.

With Finland and Sweden now both members of NATO, defense cooperation has taken on new meaning: Støre also calls the region the new “Northern Nordic” area, which also encompasses Iceland and can involve greater cooperation with NATO members in the Baltic region, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Both he and Rutte are encouraged that the US is also continuing to participate in major defense exercises in the Arctic, despite earlier uncertainty created by Trump. Rutte said he’s not worried about the US’ defense obligations as a NATO member, nor that the US will leave the alliance.

Asked whether Norwegians in Northern Norway should be afraid of Russia, Rutte said “no, but we must be prepared. We are prepared. We don’t need to be afraid of anyone. As an alliance we can fight against the Russians if they attack us.”

Støre remains keen on working with NATO’s European allies to defend the Arctic. “Let me stress again, Norway is a threat to no one,” Støre told FPA members, repeating a line from his New Year’s Eve address to the nation. But he has, for the first time, told Norwegians to be prepared for war, also when it comes in the form of cyber attacks and sabotage. He stresses the need for a “total defense” that involves both the military and civilians.

The Norwegian prime minister recently unveiled a new “security strategy” for the country, meant to better coordinate preparedness plans and resources in a crisis, and to work more closely with European countries at time when the US has become more unpredictable. Støre stressed that the US remains Norway’s “most important ally,” but at the same time is “behaving in new ways and creating uncertainty in many areas.” Russia still poses the biggest threat at present, but Støre spoke of “uncertainty in meetings with super powers in both the west and the east.” He also noted how Trump’s tariff threats earlier created uncertainty worldwide, and that when high tariffs have been imposed earlier, they led to “conflicts with terrible consequences.”

His biggest concern remains living “with a more dangerous and unpredictable Russia as our neighbour,” he said when stressing preparedness once again earlier this month. “And given the neighbour we have, given what’s going on in Europe, we must be prepared that we can also be affected.”

Støre also had his foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide, his defense minister Tore O Sandvik (far right) and Norway’s Permanent Representive to NATO, diplomat Anita Nergaard (center), along for the meetings with NATO chief Mark Rutte (center) this week, here on board the coast guard and patrol vessel KV Svalbard. PHOTO: Forsvaret/Nora Steenberg

Defense of the Arctic areas all around Norway is of critical importance, and Støre has all reason to keep it at the top of his political agenda. Political commentators in Norway have noted that both Labour and the Conservatives traditionally have had the most credibility among voters on defense issues, especially Labour at the moment, after the former NATO chief Stoltenberg joined Støre’s government.

That’s likely why Labour is doing so well now, when defense and security concerns are high among voters. That also makes it harder for the small parties to get as much attention, since they tend to thrive on domestic issues. Norwegians simply don’t seem to care as much about taxes, welfare programs, the climate and other issues when there’s war in Europe and their own borders may be threatened. The Socialist Left party (SV) long opposed NATO membership and most all the other small parties not only lost voters but some also landed under the 4 percent needed for full representation in Parliament. They haven’t been getting as much attention as usual in Norwegian media, either.

Støre told NRK on Thursday, after the new public opinion poll numbers were released, that they were “motivating,” noting how “we have raised ourselves up considerably” in just the past four months. It’s all the more reason why Støre spent much of this week in Northern Norway, to host the NATO chief and stress how Norway remains NATO’s “eyes and ears” in the north. Støre’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide and defense minister Tore O Sandvik were also along for Norway’s show of military presence both on land, at sea and in the air.

The formal goal was to “demonstrate allied multi-domaine capacity in the northern areas,” and give NATO’s Rutte “an overview of Norway’s strategic role in the north and how both Norwegian and allied forces work together in the area.” That will, Støre’s office claimed, be further strengthened in the years to come.

NewsinEnglish.no/Nina Berglund

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