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Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has confirmed that a powerful atmospheric ridge will settle over the Iberian Peninsula starting Sunday 3 August, triggering a steady and intense rise in temperatures likely to persist through to the following Wednesday.
Sunday marks a turning point in this heatwave. The arrival of a strong ridge in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will promote atmospheric stability and descending air — conditions that significantly enhance surface heating. As a result, temperatures will climb sharply, particularly across the southwestern and central regions of the peninsula.
The most extreme heat is expected on Monday 4 and Tuesday 5 August, with Tuesday likely to be the peak of this heat episode.
Forecasts indicate that temperatures could reach extremes of up to 45°C in parts of Andalusia and Extremadura, while in regions such as Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid and parts of Murcia are expected to see maximum temperatures between 40°C and 42°C.
Temperatures will soar above 40°C across much of Andalusia, Extremadura, southern Galicia, and Castile-La Mancha, reaching up to 10°C above the normal for this time of year.
The Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys will be especially impacted, with a very high likelihood of temperatures surpassing 42°C.
Night-time impact and persistence of heat: Tropical nights
The heat will not be limited to daytime hours. Minimum temperatures will also experience a notable rise, with the return of tropical nights (above 20°C) in most of the peninsular and even equatorial nights (above 25°C) on the Mediterranean coasts and central and southern areas.
In large areas of central and southern Spain, nighttime temperatures are unlikely to drop below 23°C or even 25°C, especially on Monday and Tuesday. This 24-hour heat will intensify the feeling of heat stress and make it difficult to rest at night, especially in metropolitan areas due to the effect of urban heat islands.
There could be some respite next Tuesday in the north of the peninsula, but uncertainty about the total duration of the episode is high.
Forecasts suggest that the extreme heat could persist until Wednesday, with the possibility of it continuing through the weekend and even into the beginning of the following week, especially in the south.