Saskatchewan budget projects $12M surplus but trade war a threat

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REGINA — Saskatchewan’s government says it will ride a strong economy to a projected razor-thin surplus in next year’s budget, but turbulent headwinds of tariffs could ultimately blow a billion-dollar hole in the spending plan.

Finance Minister Jim Reiter tabled the 2025-26 budget on Wednesday. It projects a $12-million surplus this fiscal year and even larger surpluses in the years that follow.

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However, it doesn’t put aside money to offset potential massive losses, as Canada fights an ongoing trade war with the United States and faces one with China starting this week.

Reiter said it wasn’t possible to build the effects of tariffs into the books, even though other provinces have managed to create contingencies.

“The uncertainties will show why including any amount of contingency this time would not be realistic,” Reiter told reporters before introducing the budget in the legislature to open the spring sitting.

“If the tariffs are on for an extended period of time, it’ll push us into a deficit position.”

The budget promises to balance the books on an estimated $21 billion of spending. The current fiscal year’s budget, which wraps up at the end of the month, is set to record a $660-million deficit.

The 2025 budget says the province will continue to properly fund education and health care while providing benefits and tax incentives for families fighting to make ends meet. That includes more than $8 billion for health care — close to 40 per cent of all government spending.

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Much of the budget fulfils promises made by the Saskatchewan Party during the provincial election campaign in October.

The budget banks on a rising population, growing oil and uranium revenues and stabilized markets for potash. Saskatchewan’s population is now over 1.2 million.

“We did not allow the tariff threat to back us off in any of our election commitments on affordability and safer communities or our commitment to deliver change by addressing the challenges of growth, like crowded classrooms and access to health care,” said Reiter.

Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel. Canada retaliated with 25 per cent levies on almost $30 billion in American products.

Meanwhile, China plans to hit Canada with 100 per cent tariffs on canola oil, meal and peas starting Thursday. It comes in response to Canada imposing levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles, aluminum and steel.

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The budget provides a brief analysis on what broad U.S. tariffs could do to Saskatchewan’s economy in one year, with Canada’s countermeasures in place.

It says in the worst-case scenario, Saskatchewan exports to the U.S. would fall by $8.2 billion, provincial gross domestic product would decline by $4.9 billion and provincial revenues would decrease by $1.4 billion.

The budget promises more than $900 million in additional spending to shorten surgical wait lists, address school classroom supports for learning, add more police and boost its revenue-sharing program with municipalities.

It also maintains the government’s commitment to provide broad-based tax relief to save an average family of four more than $3,400 over four years, along with increases to some tax credit programs.

The debt is expected to rise to $38 billion by spring 2026.

On health, the government is promising $485 million more to reduce surgical wait times and address pressures in emergency rooms. The province says it’s also working toward completing 500 addiction treatment spaces and planning new urgent care centres in smaller cities.

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Linda Renkas, vice-president of Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 5430, called the budget disappointing. She welcomed spending to build new facilities but said there’s not much to retain workers.

“We need to get the staffing levels up to appropriate ratios,” she said.

For education, an increase of $186 million will go toward school operating funding. There’s also $130 million more for growing student enrolment and to boost classroom supports.

Saskatchewan School Boards Association president Shawn Davidson said the budget addresses issues in the sector but could do more.

“Does this budget reach that ultimate goal that every child is supported in the way they need regardless of where they live or personal circumstance? No. But we’re seeing a positive step in the right direction.”

The government touts the spending as a massive hike compared to what was budgeted a year ago. But the Opposition NDP says looking at how much is actually being spent this year, the 2025 budget is a cut to both health and education.

In health care, the government planned to spend $7.6 billion this fiscal year but ended up spending just over $8 billion. It plans to spend more than $8 billion again this year, but that projected figure is $17 million less than what it’s spending on health in the current year.

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The same scenario applies to education. The government is planning to spend $4.4 billion in 2025-26, but that’s $27 million less than it expects to spend this fiscal year.

NDP Leader Carla Beck calls this a budget cut that, added to no contingency fund for tariffs, indicates Premier Scott Moe’s government doesn’t have its hand on the tiller.

“Scott Moe and the Sask. Party are asleep at the wheel,” said Beck.

“They can’t just close their eyes and hope our problems magically go away.”

Bill Prybylski, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, said he would have liked to see the budget acknowledge tariffs on the farming industry.

He said producers will need additional assistance should the levies cause devastation.

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