“At this time, with war in Europe and seeing the long hand of Russian interference also in the region, you would be a fool if you took your eye off the Western Balkans, where there are still legacy issues that are yet to be overcome,” British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told POLITICO during a visit to the region last week.
“Putin’s interests here are to keep the region destabilized. It’s in his interests to keep the countries that make up the Western Balkans on edge, to have a destabilized population and to wage a cyber and hybrid war.”
All six western Balkan states are attempting to become EU member states, a protracted process in which geopolitics can be as important as fulfilling alignment tasks. They face significant challenges, both domestically and with their neighbors. Bosnia-Herzegovina, for example, has been pushed into crisis as Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the country’s three-way presidency, evades arrest for his separatist policies. Meanwhile, Serbia accuses Kosovo of repressing its Serb minority, while Kosovo blames Serbia for violence within its territory.
Foreign policy experts and ministers alike fear the Kremlin will try to capitalize on the deep-seated ethnic and religious tensions to stoke further unrest across the Balkans, entrenching Russia’s own interests and creating yet more troubles in the EU’s backyard.
“Right now they must move forward or they will continue to be Russia’s playground,” said one U.K. official, granted anonymity to discuss matters they were not authorized to comment on publicly. There is now “quite a small window” in which the Balkan states need to “stop sitting on the fence” before Brussels is instead consumed by Ukraine’s accession, they said.
‘Paradox is alive here’
Lammy believes that Serbia — despite the democratic backsliding, the cozying up to Russia, and its continued refusal to recognize Kosovo — genuinely wants to accede to the EU, a process it started back in 2009.