Potash could replace oil exports as the next card in a U.S. trade war

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OTTAWA — If restricting oil exports to the U.S. was the first idea to stir controversy among Canada’s leaders as they looked for ways to press President Donald Trump to scrap his tariffs, cutting off its supply of potash might be the second.

And it could lead to an even bigger fight.

“When we’re talking food supply and the ability to grow food, that’s a different kind of animal,” Eric Anderson, executive director of the Saskatchewan Industrial and Mining Suppliers Association, told National Post.

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“Something you don’t really want to mess with.”

What is potash? 

Potash (pronounced POT-ash), is a key ingredient in fertilizer that is mined underground. Potash contains potassium, which is a nutrient plants need to grow.

Given that farmers use fertilizer to grow crops and that fertilizer contains potash, potash serves as a crucial part of the food supply.

There are only a few places in the world that produce potash. One of those is Canada and there is only one province that mines for it: Saskatchewan.

According to the federal government, Canada was responsible for around 32 per cent of the world’s production of potash, making it the largest.

Next to it were Russia and Belarus at almost 19 per cent and nearly 15 per cent, respectively. China was recorded as producing around 9 per cent of the world’s potash, followed by Israel at about 5 per cent.

How will the trade war affect potash? 

The United States is Canada’s biggest client when it comes to potash exports. In fact, the American Farm Bureau Federation says that more than 80 per cent of its potash comes from Canada. 

That has led to concerns about impact Trump’s tariffs will have on U.S. agriculture, given the higher prices farmers will find themselves paying.

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Even before Canada and the U.S. were plunged into a trade war on Tuesday, Chuck Grassley, a Republican senator from Iowa called on Trump to exempt potash from his trade levies.

The Fertilizer Institute, an advocacy organization representing U.S.’s fertilizer industry, also called for a carveout, saying in a statement on Tuesday that “potash is an irreplaceable component of modern agricultural production.” 

“With the spring planting season fast approaching and U.S. agriculture continuing to face serious headwinds, maintaining reliable and cost-effective fertilizer supply chains is essential to ensuring a productive harvest and protecting American farmers from unnecessary financial strain,” the group said. 

Typically, seeding begins in March or early April.

Ken Seitz, the CEO of Nutrien, the bigger potash producing company in the world, said in a question and answer session last month that it had been trying to make the point to lawmakers both in Canada and Washington about the importance Canada plays to supplying America with fertilizer.

He said the company supplies product to about 45 states.

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“We have engaged extensively with policymakers and industry stakeholders on both sides of the border to reinforce the importance of the free flow of agricultural inputs across the U.S.-Canada border in supporting farm productivity, food security, and supply chain stability,” said Shawn Churchill, a spokesman for Nutrien, which is based in Saskatoon, SK. 

“While we will continue to serve our U.S. customers, the cost of tariffs would ultimately be borne by U.S. farmers,” he added. “In anticipation of tariffs, we’ve moved as much potash south of the border as possible ahead of the spring planting season.”

K+S Potash Canada, which belongs to German company and has a mine in Saskatchewan, said in a statement it exports “relatively small volumes” of potash fertilizer south of the border, and has the ability to shift to other markets without much notice. 

“Our deliveries from Germany are not affected by the current development. However, we are examining the possibility of expanding deliveries to the US market and are monitoring current developments very closely,” wrote Sydney Gossard. 

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Should Canada consider restricting it? 

As leaders search for ways to press Trump to lift his tariffs, Ontario Premier Doug Ford suggested that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe consider not selling oil, uranium or potash to the Americans.

Ford singled out potash, saying it was integral to U.S. farming.

Moe was set to meet with his cabinet Wednesday to discuss the province’s response to U.S. tariffs, but has previously spoken out about the idea of applying export tariffs to provincial resources like oil and potash.

“American farmers need Canadian fuel and fertilizer to grow their crops,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Canada’s response needs to be economically sound and reasoned. It should not result in the same kind of self-inflicted harm that Trump is imposing on his citizens.”

Anderson told National Post that potash is not the average commodity.

“This is the ability to grow food,” he said.

“We’re talking about something here that’s a lot more important. There’s certain weapons that you have, maybe, that maybe you shouldn’t use.”

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told a crowd in Toronto that is does not make sense to take anything off the table would only “weaken” its negotiating position with the U.S.

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He said Canada’s supply of critical minerals is an especially important tool, given that without Canada the U.S would be stuck relying on China as well as Russia when it comes to potash and uranium.

“With respect to all of these issues about should we put tariffs on our own things, or should we restrict the volume that we’re actually willing to send to the United States, those are things that we may need to get to a conversation about,” Wilkinson told an event at the Economic Club of Canada. 

“It will be a conversation because, ideally, we have all of the premiers working together.”

With additional reporting by The Canadian Press

National Post

staylor@postmedia.com

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