Man City 2-1 Aston Villa (Bernardo 7′, Nunes 90+4’| Rashford pen 18′)
ETIHAD STADIUM — A bizarre, injury-plagued year for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City might still yet end with the FA Cup trophy and Champions League qualification thanks to a dramatic late win over Aston Villa.
But still, even a coach who has pretty much seen it all in his illustrious career could not have expected this campaign to turn out like this.
A run of just one defeat, and five wins, in their last eight league games culminated in Matheus Nunes’ 94th-minute winner on Tuesday, a goal which leaves City leading the chasing pack to win one of the five Champions League places.
The fact they have compiled that run with midfielders Nunes and Nico O’Reilly occupying the two full-back spots is just one of many strange elements to this latest chapter in Guardiola’s City story.
“If you told me at the beginning of the season we would be going to play a semi-final with Matheus and Nico at full-backs, I would have said ‘what are you talking about?’” admitted Guardiola after the win.
But that has been the type of campaign City have endured. The losses of Rodri and more recently Erling Haaland to injury might well have derailed Guardiola’s season regardless, but it has been the absence of injured players in defence that have arguably proved even more costly.
With four games remaining in the league, City have leaked 42 goals, seven more than they have in any other campaign under their current manager. Not since Roberto Mancini took over from Mark Hughes mid-season in 2009-10 – and City let in 45 goals in finishing fifth – have they allowed more.
John Stones and Nathan Ake have started just 14 games between them, Manuel Akanji managed just 20 starts and even Ruben Dias has missed long spells, starting 21 of City’s 34 games to date.
Back-up keeper Stefan Ortega has also started 12 games, the same as in the previous two seasons combined, as first-choice Ederson has joined the long list of walking wounded at the Etihad.
It all explains why Guardiola admitted last week he needs to decide this summer which of his current squad he can trust to be reliable – in terms of durability – and City will have to buy cover for those he cannot and who remain at the club.
The City boss signed two young central defenders in the January window, in Vitor Reis and Abdukodir Khusanov but, as we enter the decisive games of the Premier League season, Guardiola seems not to trust them.
Instead, Josko Gvardiol, who arrived as a centre-half but has spent most of his City career at left-back, is back in the centre of defence and two midfielders are playing full-backs.
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That speaks to Guardiola’s genius for re-inventing players, and sometimes even the game. After all, he won a league title without a recognised striker before Haaland arrived, and has barely had a specialist left-back on his books throughout his nine years in Manchester.
Some of his personnel decisions have bordered on gambles and, perhaps, this has been a season where some of those gambles have backfired.
Guardiola might have been expected to see Kyle Walker’s January defection to AC Milan coming, given his complicated personal life and the fact he almost signed for Bayern Munich two summers ago. But the City manager obviously felt Rico Lewis was viable cover, which has simply not been the case, with the youngster taking a step back this season.
Perhaps, this is what Guardiola means when he admits – as he has done repeatedly recently – that he, personally, has not done a very good job this season. Yet, so good is the City manager and the bulk of his squad, that relative success now looks well within reach, judging by how his team beat Villa.
Having lost to Forest in the league at the start of March – along with losses to the top two Liverpool and Arsenal, their only league defeats since before Christmas – City look favourites to get the better of them in Sunday’s FA Cup semi.
“We performed like we did in the past, with our commitment, we controlled most of the game, the back four were amazing,” said Guardiola of the Villa win.
“For qualification for the Champions League, it is so important but we have to be calm, focus on the semi-final and the four finals (in the league); two at home, two away, game by game.”