I recently spoke to a Capitol Hill source who said keeping up with Donald Trump’s second term is like running a marathon at a sprinter’s pace. It was a good line, but it was also true.
Marathon runners can take their time, knowing that the race is long and requires pacing. Sprinters don’t have the luxury of time, so they have no choice but to give it their all the moment the race begins, unconcerned about fatigue that might set in over a longer distance.
Exactly one month into the Republican’s term, as Trump goes about remaking the presidency, the nation and even the nature of American democracy, those dealing with his efforts must be both marathon runners and sprinters simultaneously, planning for both a long race and the immediate effects of a White House pursuing radical, fast and potentially dangerous changes.
There’s little point in trying to present a comprehensive chronicle of the past month; it would be far too long for a single blog post. That said, the developments are likely familiar to Americans who keep up on current events. The scandalous pardons. The hostility toward the rule of law. The corruption. The power grabs. The incompetence. The damaging policies and personnel. The international incidents. The revenge tour. The callousness. The billionaires. The rapid dismantling of the federal government. The pettiness, the trivialities, the finger-pointing and the overt references to an authoritarian vision for the nation’s future.
As we pause at the one-month mark to take stock, the question isn’t whether Trump is engaging in maximalist radicalism. The question is whether it’s working.
As a policy matter, it will take time before a reliable answer comes into focus. After one month, for example, the public does not yet know how much of the White House’s agenda, if any, will pass legal muster in the courts, or what the practical effects of the administration’s goals will be.
But as a political matter, Americans wondering whether they’re the only ones recoiling in fear and disgust from the events of the last month, desperate to know whether there are voters feeling buyer’s remorse, can take some solace in the latest evidence.
The Wall Street Journal published a report this week on a variety of Trump voters who watched recent events and are left with feelings of regret.
“When we said safer borders, I thought he was thinking ‘Let’s stop the drugs from coming into the country,’ ” [a Trump voter in Nebraska] said. “I didn’t know he was going to start raiding places.” She said she didn’t believe he would actually follow through on some of the more hard-line policies he touted during the campaign. “Now I’m like: ‘Dang, why didn’t I just pick Kamala?’ ” said the 49-year-old Omaha, Neb., resident, referring to the former vice president and last-minute Democratic nominee.
The same report quoted a Trump voter in Minnesota who said she considers her support for the president as the “biggest mistake of my life.”
She is horrified by Trump’s focus on deportations and use of Guantanamo Bay to hold migrants. She alleged that Trump has been too focused on “ridiculous” flashy moves, such as banning paper straws and renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” Her daughter’s occupational therapist has stopped taking new patients over fears that the practice will have its federal funding dry up.
The voter added, “I feel so stupid, guilty, regretful — embarrassed is a huge one. I am absolutely embarrassed that I voted for Trump.”
Obviously, it’s best not to draw sweeping conclusions from anecdotal evidence, but there’s plenty of quantifiable evidence to consider, too.
- The latest national poll from the Pew Research Center found Trump “underwater,” with 47% approving of the president and 51% disapproving.
- The latest national poll from Quinnipiac University pointed in a similar direction: 45% approve, 49% disapprove.
- The latest national poll from Gallup also pointed in a similar direction: 45% approve, 51% disapprove. The report on the results added, “Trump’s job approval rating is 15 points below the historical average for all other elected presidents in mid-February since 1953.”
- The latest national Washington Post-Ipsos poll also pointed in a similar direction: 43% approve, 48% disapprove.
- The latest national poll from CNN also pointed in a similar direction: 47% approve, 52% disapprove.
- The latest national Reuters/Ipsos poll also pointed in a similar direction: 44% approve, 51% disapprove.
(Click the above links for more information on the polls’ methodologies and margins of error.)
To be sure, an approval rating in the mid-40s is not terrible, especially for a president who, in three tries, never received 50% of the vote. What’s more, given that the Republican can’t seek a third term, Trump might very well not care whether he enjoys public support or not.
But I emphasize this for a few reasons. First, there’s the historical oddity: Since the dawn of modern polling, every other president, from both parties, has enjoyed stronger public backing than Trump. Second, there are electoral implications: The more voters disapprove of the incumbent in the Oval Office, the better the opposition party’s chances in the midterm cycle.
Third, there are legislative considerations: Just as congressional Republicans would feel emboldened if Trump were riding high in the polls, reveling in his broad popularity, the inverse is true, too: GOP lawmakers, worried about their career prospects, will likely be less inclined to put their necks on the line when they see public opinion research showing the president’s public support faltering.
But there’s also something to be said for the public consciousness. Many have likely watched the last month and felt a combination of dread and horror. For them, I have news one month into the new Trump era: This president, more than any of his modern predecessors, has more national opponents than supporters, and given the recent trajectories, his support isn’t likely to recover any time soon.