That strategy fell apart when Zelenskyy couldn’t restrain himself when goaded by Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office. Now the strategy is back on track and Moscow will have to decide quickly how to play Trump.
It would seem improbable that Russia’s generals will want any letup right now. They have managed slow but consistent advances in the east in the Donetsk region and are a few miles from breaking through into the neighboring region of Dnipropetrovsk.
This weekend, they managed a significant breakthrough in the Kursk region, coming close to encircling around 10,000 elite Ukrainian troops who have been defending captured territory in Russia. Russian commanders have also been planning to increase their ballistic missile and drone assaults, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, who recently predicted Moscow now has the capacity to launch simultaneous attacks involving 500 drones.
It’s hardly easy, then, for Putin to tell his generals that it’s time for a ceasefire. But he has to worry about Trump’s reaction if he just ignores Washington and plows on with his war.
Russian newspaper Kommersant suggested Wednesday that the Kremlin’s response will only become clearer following a visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy.
When that might happen is not clear. Russian media report he is expected in Russia shortly and ahead of a possible phone call between Trump and Putin Friday, but Kremlin spokesperson Peskov batted away reports of Witkoff’s imminent arrival.
Judging by Putin’s handling of previous diplomatic rounds with the Americans in recent years — over Syria and Ukraine — he’s likely to opt to string discussions out, raising different objections and offering a succession of confusing counter proposals.
Putin’s tone is often delivered in more of a sorrowful tone of crocodile tears than a confrontational one, but he has to tread with care. All Trump cares about is getting his deal, and he doesn’t like anyone stopping him.