Norway was having to rely on Denmark’s prime minister instead of its own this week, when leaders of the European Union (EU) gathered to respond to new challenges from the US and Russia. Since Norway has never joined the EU, it was left out of important new crisis meetings called after the US’ Trump administration set off more shocks at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) during the weekend.
The important international conference got off to a rocky start when new US Vice President JD Vance opted to criticize Europe’s failure to embrace right-wing political parties instead of criticizing Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine. It also became clear that European leaders won’t be included in upcoming peace talks between the new right-wing US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. US leaders are now nurturing ties to Russian leaders, instead of to their long-time European allies.
There were some mixed signals from Trump’s envoys, however, so EU foreign ministers in Munich for the important annual conference quickly banded together for so-called “crisis meetings” on Sunday. Norway’s foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide, was also still in Munich but he wasn’t invited, presumably because Norway isn’t part of the EU. Nor were either Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre or Norway’s new finance minister Jens Stoltenberg, both of whom also were in Munich. Stoltenberg, the former NATO secretary general, had been expected to lead the security conference itself, but has postponed taking on his new job at MSC to attend to his new ministerial post.
Then came news that the leaders of several European countries and the EU were invited by French President Emmanuel Macron to another crisis meeting in Paris on Monday. New NATO chief Mark Rutte was also invited, but not the Norwegians. Støre claimed Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen would “represent the eight Nordic and Baltic countries at the meeting,” which aimed to formulate Europe’s response to criticism and questions from the US regarding what Europe can contribute to Ukraine in the form of “security guarantees” that the US claims are needed to end Russia’s war.
The US, reported the Financial Times, has sent detailed questionnaires to many European countries including Norway asking, for example, how many soldiers they could send to a peace-keeping force in Ukraine, along with what kinds of weapons they could provide. Norwegian Foreign Minister Eide confirmed to newspaper Aftenposten that Norway also has received such a questionnaire, adding that it would be “discussed” at NATO. Prime Minister Støre responded to state broadcaster NRK Monday that “this is not the time to discuss sending any Norwegian military forces to Ukraine.” He thinks it’s “too early,” while Norway’s neighbouring Sweden, now a member of both the EU and NATO, won’t rule out sending Swedish troops to Ukraine.
Støre clearly is reluctant to directly criticize Trump and Trump’s new appointees, several of whom are viewed as unqualified for their new posts. Støre was firm, however, in stating that “there can be no sustainable peace pact (between Ukraine and Russia) unless Ukraine and Europe have a seat at the table.”
Concerns are still rising that Trump is in the process of undermining NATO, and that NATO is already being weakened given Trump’s intention to meet with Putin alone. Ukraine and much of the rest of Europe also worry that Trump will declare some sort of peace pact with Russia “over the heads” of Ukrainian and European leaders, no matter how unfair that may be. The new US defense secretary’s declaration at the Munich Security Conference that it would be “unrealistic” to include Ukraine in NATO also created great unrest.
Norway’s exclusion from the meetings following the conference, meanwhile, prompted more concern back home that Norwegian politicians’ ongoing refusal to hold a new EU referendum is “irresponsible.” Researchers, foreign policy experts and many others are now worried that Norway’s membership in NATO may no longer be enough to maintain the country’s own defense and security.
“I’ve never been really worried about Europe’s security situation before, but now I am,” said researcher Iver B Neumann, director of Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute, on state broadcaster NRK. “And the reason for that is the unpredictability of Trump’s America that we’ve never seen the likes of before.”
Norway, he said, can end up “more and more isolated” outside the EU: “A small country like Norway must have allies.” Another Norwegian researcher, Karsten Friis of the Norwegian foreign policy institute NUPI, called it “unfortunate” that Norway isn’t part of the strategic decision-making process of EU members, especially regarding Europe’s relations with the US. He agrees with Neumann that the EU issue needs to be addressed once again.
Yet just last week, Støre warned against launching any new EU debate in Norway. That surprised many, since Støre recently dissolved his Labour Party’s former minority coalition government with the anti-EU Center Party and opted to rule alone. He has long favoured EU membership himself, so has his new finance minister Jens Stoltenberg, and Støre would now have more freedom to be overtly EU-friendly.
Støre, however, fears a new debate over EU membership will polarize the country like it did during campaigns for and against joining the EU in 1972 and 1994. Even though it’s been 30 years since Norwegians last had a chance to vote on the issue (and once again turned down EU membership), Støre thinks Norway now needs to concentrate on all the new challenges coming from the US, and take care of Norway’s trade agreement with the EU instead.
He also surprisingly won full support for his position from the leader of Labour’s rival Conservative Party, Erna Solberg, leader of the opposition in Parliament. She’s also in favour of joining the EU, but shares Støre’s fears that a new referendum on EU membership now would split the country. “There’s no point in pumping up a full-scale EU debate, when we know that folks aren’t ready for that,” she told newspaper Klassekampen late last week.
Many others aren’t so sure, including leading figures within each of Norway’s two largest parties. Lots of calls have gone out just in recent weeks for Norway to seek EU membership, especially in the current times of trouble with Trump. Solberg’s own foreign minister Ine Eriksen Søreide has been a staunch supporter of EU membership, and Norwegian newspapers have featured paid ads from EU supporters claiming that Norway would be more secure as an EU member, especially if Trump keeps criticizing NATO.
‘Poor leadership’
“I must say I’m amazed that the leaders of both of Norway’s major parties, the Conservatives and Labour, say we shouldn’t discuss EU membership,” researcher Neumann told NRK. “The only way to consolidate European defense now is to be an EU member. It’s poor leadership not to launch this debate.”
Labour’s Foreign Minister Eide has also supported EU membership personally, and told NRK that the government agrees Europe should take on greater responsibility for its security on its own continent. “That’s fully possible without us having to seek membership in the EU,” Eide claimed, adding that “we think the collective defense should still be organized within the framework of NATO.”
NATO’s largest member, the US, is, however, now going it alone with Putin and excluding Europe from a seat around the bargaining table. Europe will be kept informed, though, said one of Trump’s new assistants, Keith Kellogg. He urged European countries to concentrate on what they can contribute in terms of military support, instead of taking part in negotiations with Russia. That continued to spark controversy in Europe this week.
NewsinEnglish.no/Nina Berglund