Liverpool are 11 points clear at the top of the Premier League with seven games remaining and everything points to the title heading to Anfield
Funny how perspective can alter what seems a straightforward view. Had Liverpool supporters been offered at the start of the season an 11-point lead at the top of the Premier League by the second week of April, there’s every chance the gifting hand would have also been swiped in the fury.
But that such an advantage was 16 points a little over a month earlier has been sufficient for some fans to start to fret over what until now has been a dominant domestic league campaign from Arne Slot’s side.
Yes, some context is required. Liverpool’s large lead in March was assured when Arsenal had two games in hand, who followed a draw at Manchester United with a home win over Chelsea.
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However, having traded wins last midweek, the Reds’ failure to capitalise on the Gunners drawing at Everton by slumping 3-2 at Fulham on Sunday – suffering a third defeat in four games in all competitions in the process – has caused some nerves to be frayed.
Memories of fading title challenges past, not least last season with effectively the same group of players, remain very much fresh for supporters burnt by previous false hope.
But just how commanding is Liverpool’s lead with seven games left to play?
There have been 32 completed seasons since the Premier League came into being at the start of 1992/93. And in that time, remarkably only once have the Reds previously led the table at this stage of the season.
That was in 2019/20 when Liverpool were 23 points clear of second-placed Manchester City, the largest such lead in Premier League history with seven games to go.
Liverpool’s current position stands seventh in the list of overall biggest advantages. City were 16 points clear in 2017/18 and 14 points ahead in 2020/21, although their nearest rivals Manchester United had a game in hand. Chelsea (2004/05) and United (2000/01) were top by 13 points, with United 12 points ahead of the chasing pack in 2012/13.
All of those teams went on to win the title. Indeed, the largest lead with seven games remaining that was overturned was five points, which United frittered away during the closing stages of the 2011/12 campaign to allow City their first championship in 44 years.
That was one of only nine times the team the Premier League at the present stage of the competition has not ultimately been crowned champions. Four saw the eventual title winners able to go top by winning games in hand, while the remainder were within two points of the lead.
Of course, two of those occasions came most recently, when in 2022/23 City came from four points behind Arsenal – albeit with a game in hand – to be champions, and last term were a point adrift of the Gunners in third before going on to win the championship.
Liverpool will also be reassured that since the introduction of three points for a win some 44 years ago, no team in the English top flight has ever failed win the title when possessing the advantage Slot’s team do now.
There will inevitably be some bumps in the road with the finishing line now in sight. But there’s a reason why the Reds remain massively odds-on to end the campaign with the Premier League back in the trophy cabinet.