Having just passed the depressing milestone of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, speculation is becoming feverish about the future of European and British security. Knee-jerk reactions abound, which is the worst possible climate in which to plot a course for future defence and security.
Regardless of how many permutations of possible outcomes to the Ukraine debacle are postulated, the conclusion is the same. It consists of two fundamental realities. The first is that urgent, even unprecedented, action is needed to increase significantly, not just to a token degree, the defence budgets of Britain and every other European nation. The second reality is that the only viable vehicle for a re-energised defence of Europe is the tried and trusted NATO alliance.
There is a negative, verging on the masochistic, spirit abroad, with people who should know better loudly proclaiming the death of NATO. That is a dangerous assertion which carries the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy if repeated often enough. It is based on the rash assumption that Donald Trump is planning to dissolve the North Atlantic Alliance. Why would he? It is a successful initiative that has given Europe, barring the occasional bush fire, eighty years of peace. It saw off the Soviet Union and its crazed aspirations to global hegemony. From an American perspective, it is a useful projection of the hard power of the United States in the West.