Amid the geopolitical uncertainty unleashed by the Trump administration, President Emmanuel Macron may be making a political comeback, according to recent French polls. A survey conducted by Ipsos indicates that the president’s favourability rating among French voters has recovered by five percentage points, rising to 27% this month, up from the doldrums of 22% in February.
The poll shows that international events have had a significant impact on how the French view their president. According to the latest data, the issue of “international crises” has risen by 16 points to become the third most important concern of those polled, below inflation and the state of the welfare system. Meanwhile, another poll published by Le Figaro earlier this month indicated that 43% of those consulted believed that President Macron represents France well in international affairs.
Taken together, these signs suggest that the international uncertainty ushered in by Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his administration’s sharp criticisms of European allies, and his rapprochement with the Kremlin, have all caused voters to re-evaluate Macron’s leadership.
To be sure, the significance of this latest boost should not be overstated. Macron’s approval ratings remain below the peak of 47% he reached following his re-election in 2022. Nonetheless, the news will be read by the president and his advisers in the Elysée as an encouraging sign that recent policies and announcements are striking a chord with the French people.
The poll represents a potential turnaround in Macron’s political fortunes following the June-July 2024 National Assembly elections, which saw the president’s decision to call an early poll backfire spectacularly. The elections saw a surge in support for the leftwing New Popular Front and the rightwing National Rally at the expense of the president’s centrist alliance. The resulting reduction in his coalition’s position in the Assembly threatens to turn Macron into a lame-duck president and scupper his domestic agenda for the remainder of his second and final presidential term, which ends in 2027.
Now, amid a deteriorating international environment, the French president is perceived to be standing up for a strong, independent Europe in the face of a reckless Trump administration. In the eyes of many of his compatriots, Macron’s consistent calls over the years for Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy in defence and diplomacy have been vindicated.
In his latest manoeuvres, Macron has been consciously posing as the inheritor of General Charles de Gaulle, the talismanic figure of postwar French politics, whose sceptical – and frequently hostile – approach to American power continues to guide the strategic vision of French policymakers.
Indeed, Macron has been leaning heavily into France’s Gaullist tradition, using his gift for communication and his keen sense of political theatre to present himself as the strong leader that France needs to steer it through a time of crisis. In a televised address to the nation on 6 March, Macron declared in no uncertain terms that “our generation will no longer receive the dividends of peace. It is up to us to ensure that our children can reap the dividends of our commitments tomorrow.” Striking a serious tone, he stated that France – and Europe – are now in a “new era” characterised by “brutality”.
Since then, serious words have been followed up with policy announcements. He has been exploring the potential of extending the French nuclear deterrent to European allies. And he has been frequently expressing his belief that France should act quickly to increase its defence spending from the current 2% of GDP to 3-3.5%.
In general, the French president’s actions have been well received. La Montagne, a regional daily based in Clemont-Ferrand, stated that “Macron is back”, praising his “clear ideas” and his unambiguously “patriotic and European” approach to the Trump administration. The national newspaper of record, Le Monde, has described the president’s handling of his country’s policy on the Ukraine War as “firm” and noted approvingly that, under his guidance, France is showing leadership at a time when the future of Europe is at stake.
The president’s stance on Ukraine and European defence has not met with unanimous approval, however. Others have been more critical, arguing that the likelihood of a direct confrontation with Russia remains minimal, while pointing out that the president will be unable to drive forwards rearmament without first tackling the country’s spiralling national debt. Others have argued that rearmament will be meaningless if France cannot also address ailing law and order inside the country itself.
Macron’s drive for higher defence spending may also be undermined by another aspect of his Gaullist politics – his staunch aversion to too much British influence in Europe. The French president has been waging a successful battle in Brussels to keep British arms companies out of a €150 billion European Union rearmament fund. This may yet be resolved by a new security treaty between Britain and the European Union, but it could easily threaten to derail the good will required to build a European “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.
Yet if he can seize back the political momentum, Macron may at some point feel bold enough to once again roll the dice on fresh parliamentary elections. Although restricted by the constitution of France’s Fifth Republic from calling a new vote until July 2025, a year after the last elections were held, Macron might move quickly after this date if he were to perceive public opinion moving in the favour of him and his Ensemble coalition.
The stage is set for Macron to be the comeback kid of European politics. He has bounced back before, notably after his popularity hit rock bottom during the Gilets Jaunes protests in 2018. If his fortunes continue to improve, he may not end up being a lame-duck president for the remainder of his presidency after all.
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