US B-2 stealth bombers flying into Diego Garcia, THAAD air defence systems moving to Israel, Iranian long-range missiles moved to Iraq… Something’s up, and it’s not just the stock market.
What’s up seems to be the possibility of a deal between the US and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme, or failing that – war with Iran.
Even as diplomatic talks get underway, the movement of military hardware is being used by both sides to signal the pain they can cause each other if the talks fail.
This weekend, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, travels to Oman for talks with the Americans. He will be negotiating with President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. Earlier in the week, President Trump said these would be “direct talks” but the Iranians insist they are indirect meaning the Omanis shuttling between the two.
Whichever it is, Trump was right when he described it in his very imitable way as a “very big meeting” and “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.” On 30 March, he warned: “There will be a bombing” if Iran fails to agree a new deal.