The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.
The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.
Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.
The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.
Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election. Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP
<div class=\”atom\” data-svelte-h=\”svelte-1a0yet2\”><div class=\”interactive-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><h2>Latest German opinion polls</h2> <div class=\”gv-chart-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><div class=\”gv-tt\”><div class=\”gv-tt__date\”></div> <div class=\”gv-tt__subhead\”>14-day rolling average %</div> <table><tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”CDU/CSU\”></span>CDU/CSU</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-CDU\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”SPD\”></span>SPD</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-SPD\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”GRÜNE\”></span>Grüne</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-GRÜNE\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”FDP\”></span>FDP</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-FDP\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”AfD\”></span>AfD</td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”LINKE\”></span>Linke</td></tr></table></div> <svg class=\”gv-chart-svg\”></svg> <div class=\”gv-caption\”><span>Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,</span>\n last updated <span class=\”gv-caption__updated\”></span></div></div></div> </div></div>”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740324551000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.29 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740324112000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.21 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.21″,”title”:”What is the voting system?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bb36b48f08089227381df8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with <strong>Dr Raphael Bossong </strong>of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.</p>”,”elementId”:”ab209012-0aaf-4e14-a47d-e3392a51b141″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why <a href=\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Europe</a> should take note of the vote.</p>”,”elementId”:”738b91fa-ff29-44b4-9d15-b278078a08f9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote>\n <p><em>Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.</em></p>\n <p><em>The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.</em></p>\n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”e1a14e21-0071-43d2-8cf6-f51ff2088cf9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Watch what he had to say:</p>”,”elementId”:”904586c6-be3b-4679-8958-e395bea15897″},{“expired”:false,”assetId”:”y_mRJBHCsuU”,”posterImage”:[{“url”:” a decisive election’: Germans prepare to elect new chancellor – video”,”channelId”:”UCIRYBXDze5krPDzAEOxFGVA”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740322484000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.54 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322800000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.00 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322801000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.00 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.00″,”title”:”What’s at stake in this election? – expert says”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bb33fb8f08089227381dd4″,”elements”:[{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”2020″,”width”:”3365″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:” vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was <strong>at 52%</strong>, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.</p>”,”elementId”:”8a21e9f9-c686-4d9b-a7b1-ddc25ebcd1d2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, <a href=\” by Welt</a>, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of <strong>Thuringia</strong> (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.</p>”,”elementId”:”8892ad49-becf-4b0e-8aba-e25e45a119a9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.</p>”,”elementId”:”eb8d9805-84f7-4b68-92e2-e5db64508347″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Scholz urges German parties to exclude far right as AfD poised for state election victory”,”elementId”:”76969801-dc50-4733-a7a8-a5a511178650″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:” turnout reported by 2pm”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bb2e6d8f0835381101aa9c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Opinion is divided as <strong>Germany</strong> faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as <strong>Friedrich Merz</strong> is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party <strong>AfD</strong> could become the second most powerful party.</p>”,”elementId”:”f237f6cd-89c9-457c-941e-5a61afc6244e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin <strong>what they expected from the election</strong> and <strong>what they wanted the next chancellor to focus on.</strong></p>”,”elementId”:”6979dc8c-fee0-4063-bd3c-811f301054d6″},{“expired”:false,”assetId”:”ybKbEARpmj8″,”posterImage”:[{“url”:” and a bit scary’: German voters react ahead of election – video”,”channelId”:”UCIRYBXDze5krPDzAEOxFGVA”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740320365000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.19 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740321702000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.41 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740321702000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.41 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.41″,”title”:”‘Exciting and a bit scary’: German voters react ahead of election – video”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bac20d8f086d3992205245″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><em>Europe correspondent</em></p>”,”elementId”:”2989dfec-db58-4eae-b7b6-b0d68c41fdfb”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.InteractiveAtomBlockElement”,”css”:”@charset \”UTF-8\”;@font-face{font-family:Guardian Headline Full;src:url( format(\”woff2\”),url( format(\”woff\”),url( format(\”truetype\”);font-weight:300;font-style:normal}@font-face{font-family:Guardian Headline Full;src:url( format(\”woff2\”),url( format(\”woff\”),url( 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svelte-9mnz0u\”><h2>Latest German opinion polls</h2> <div class=\”gv-chart-wrapper svelte-9mnz0u\”><div class=\”gv-tt\”><div class=\”gv-tt__date\”></div> <div class=\”gv-tt__subhead\”>14-day rolling average %</div> <table><tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”CDU/CSU\”></span>CDU/CSU</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-CDU\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”SPD\”></span>SPD</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-SPD\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”GRÜNE\”></span>Grüne</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-GRÜNE\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”FDP\”></span>FDP</td> <td id=\”gv-avg-FDP\” class=\”gv-tt__avg\”></td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”AfD\”></span>AfD</td></tr> <tr><td><span class=\”gv-blob\” data-party=\”LINKE\”></span>Linke</td></tr></table></div> <svg class=\”gv-chart-svg\”></svg> <div class=\”gv-caption\”><span>Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,</span>\n last updated <span class=\”gv-caption__updated\”></span></div></div></div> </div></div>”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative <strong>Merz</strong> will be Germany’s next chancellor. <strong>The CDU</strong> and its Bavarian sister party, <strong>the Christian Social Union (CSU)</strong>, have been <strong>consistently and comfortably ahead</strong> in the polls on about 30%, with the <strong>Alternative für Deutschland</strong> second on 20-21%.</p>”,”elementId”:”5c39455d-be81-436b-a751-ac2750ccdcaf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.</p>”,”elementId”:”687ea5a2-a7fd-4c17-8fd3-7cb7aec97759″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>According to the <a href=\” poll tracker</a>, <strong>the SPD</strong> are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on <strong>13%</strong>. The leftwing <strong>Die Linke</strong> are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” <strong>Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance</strong> (BSW) or liberal <strong>FDP</strong> will do the same.</p>”,”elementId”:”10dacca6-4098-4016-98ba-dedec31e9aa7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, <strong>the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.</strong></p>”,”elementId”:”4b8d7d87-1af8-4c8a-8fd7-765ff7cbfbb8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament <strong>very hard to predict.</strong> However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.</p>”,”elementId”:”8b5edc62-b23a-4b0b-a752-dea34190479b”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740317435000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.30 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740317435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.30 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.30″,”title”:”What do the polls say?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67babdb98f0835381101a89c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><em>Europe correspondent</em></p>”,”elementId”:”af2c9a39-a045-498e-8b54-0a686157711e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria</strong> (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager <a href=\” Merz</a>, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.</p>”,”elementId”:”a69a9fff-945a-402d-8873-168e85f77a63″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The far-right <strong>Alternative für Deutschland</strong> (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.</p>”,”elementId”:”f839be79-f228-42ca-97b6-c615aac50275″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Scholz’s <strong>Social Democratic party (SPD)</strong> aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.</p>”,”elementId”:”2db721fd-8b4d-47a8-8d51-e5e32e9af95f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>The Greens</strong> have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable energy.</p>”,”elementId”:”99f90b8a-82e3-412c-af01-a42e9f3e3db5″},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”1759″,”width”:”2933″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:” posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”caption”:”Election posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740314884000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740314884000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.48″,”title”:”Who are the key players and what have they promised?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67babb568f08089227381baf”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><em>Europe correspondent</em></p>”,”elementId”:”0505663e-4380-4828-b652-9e08273f9bf6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The <strong>three-way “traffic-light” coalition</strong> of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 <strong><a href=\” in November</a></strong> under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.</p>”,”elementId”:”6dcfc169-f548-4cfc-bc24-2dfbfce5764f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, <strong>Olaf Scholz</strong>, <a href=\” his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner</a>, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – <a href=\” he duly did</a>.</p>”,”elementId”:”9408d60f-bf3f-4ac1-93d2-232736a3f9a2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, <a href=\” infrastructure</a> and an economy that has <a href=\” for two consecutive years</a> for the first time in decades.</p>”,”elementId”:”ea88f87b-9de1-4046-b972-13daf7bee975″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The <a href=\” with trade partner China</a> has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been <a href=\” to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs)</a> and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.</p>”,”elementId”:”eaaa107a-0118-4df2-a1e9-e613098d720e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Optimists</strong> say the vote could give <a href=\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Germany</a> a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. <strong>Pessimists</strong> say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.</p>”,”elementId”:”a26d9f12-e9d7-4a52-8afa-2c436b16029a”},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”2236″,”width”:”3725″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:” chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740312506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740312506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.08″,”title”:”Why does the German election matter?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bab6bf8f086d399220521d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Guten Tag</strong>, and good day from <strong>Berlin</strong>.</p>”,”elementId”:”2661f382-ff79-48c7-8fdd-d918fdc8e2bf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Sixty million <strong>Germans</strong> choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.</p>”,”elementId”:”7791d6bf-6985-40a2-af0f-34076780d8cc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering <a href=\” data-component=\”auto-linked-tag\”>Germany</a> through an <strong>existential security crisis in Europe</strong> with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented<strong> structural challenges to the country’s economic model</strong> amid a <strong>worsening geopolitical outlook abroad</strong>, most obviously characterised by a <strong>crumbling transatlantic alliance</strong> with the new US administration of Donald Trump.</p>”,”elementId”:”ef1237a7-450b-428d-80bf-9d2f94c7311d”},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”2631″,”width”:”4384″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:” man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The conservative opposition chief <strong>Friedrich Merz</strong> is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?</p>”,”elementId”:”cb90fe44-01dc-466d-ba82-6042543a3786″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at <strong>6pm local time</strong> (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.</p>”,”elementId”:”49642e04-b91e-45b0-a8c2-d538e7ec8f20″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.</p>”,”elementId”:”7913a86a-490f-4570-9d93-6bcecdaac08e”},{“expired”:false,”assetId”:”HSrg6_CCtH8″,”posterImage”:[{“url”:” Guardian’s Jakub Krupa previews our German election coverage from Berlin – video”,”channelId”:”UCIRYBXDze5krPDzAEOxFGVA”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740310762000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740310774000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”06.39″,”title”:”Opening: Germany votes”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:” 23 Feb 2025 11.14 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
Key events
Ashifa Kassam
Community affairs correspondent
People attend a protest against the migration plans of the CDU party leader and top candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz and the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD), near Reichstag, in Berlin, Germany. Photograph: Christian Mang/Reuters
Migration has loomed large in the lead-up to the election, cast repeatedly as a problem to be solved; from Olaf Scholz’s promise to “deport people more often and faster” to the proposals by the conservative opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, to turn away asylum seekers at Germany’s borders and revoke the citizenship of dual nationals who commit a crime.
Both have seemingly sought to keep pace with the AfD, who have peddled promises of remigration and repeatedly tied migration to crime, falsely tarring the millions of Germans who hail from around the world and live peacefully in and contribute to the country.
Ashifa Kassam
Community affairs correspondent
The “Vote for love – as long as you still can, Winterpride – Call to vote for democratic and queer-friendly parties!” protest in Berlin. Photograph: snapshot-photography/F Boillot/REX/Shutterstock
In the days before an election in which the far right is expected to catapult into second place in Germany’s parliament, the simultaneous rallies in 50 municipalities were billed as a show of strength by an LGBTQ+ community as people braced for what might lie ahead.
They poured on to streets across Germany by the thousands, waving rainbow flags and signs that read “Choose Love”.
Sunday’s election, however, could leave the LGBTQ+ community grappling with an intensified challenge as polls suggest support for the AfD is set to double, yielding a result that would be unprecedented in the country’s postwar history.
Deborah Cole
Berlin correspondent
Or here is a tl;dr on Alice Weidel in a video form, from Deborah Cole:
Alice Weidel: The far-right leader riding a wave of extremism in Germany – video
Who is AfD’s leader Alice Weidel?
Kate Connolly
Berlin correspondent
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-leader Alice Weidel speaks during a joint press conference with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Márton Mónus/Reuters
Alternative für Deutschland’s leader Alice Weidel is a politician of contradictions: a German nationalist who lives in Switzerland; a former investment banker who rails against elites; and a lesbian with two adopted sons, leading a party that defines a family as “father, mother and children”.
Yet as our Berlin correspondent, Kate Connolly, explains in this podcast, despite Weidel’s background – or perhaps because of it – she has risen to the top of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), picked to be its candidate for chancellor in federal elections.
And though Weidel is unlikely to become chancellor after the elections – given the refusal of other parties to form a coalition with the AfD – she might still have the influence to push German politics further to the right, and has eyes on gaining power next time around, in five years’ time.
All eyes on far-right AfD
Deborah Cole
Berlin correspondent
Supporters of the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) take part in an AfD campaign rally in Hohenschoenhausen, Berlin. Photograph: Christian Mang/Reuters
In the tumultuous German election campaign, which has been rocked by jaw-dropping US interference, a spate of violent attacks and rare fears for the country’s political stability, all eyes have been locked on the party most likely to finish second.
When the dust settles after Sunday’s vote and conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is – barring further surprises – elected chancellor, the 2025 race will be remembered as the moment the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, consistently polling in second place, went from sideshow to centre stage.
The far right AfD are set for the biggest gains in the German election
What began as a professors’ party opposing eurozone bailout packages has morphed in just 12 years into an ever more radical force, feeding on anti-migrant sentiment and incorporating neo-Nazis into its ranks.
Germany built its postwar identity – with the fundamental help of the Americans – around preventing parties like the AfD from gaining power.
Which Merz would turn up as chancellor? – expert says
Jakub Krupa
So let’s go back to Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for a second.
I asked him what we should expect from Merz as a potential chancellor, and which side of him is likely to dominate: the one declaring strong support for the EU, or the one pushing for radical overhaul of migration policy, even at risk of falling foul of the bloc’s rules?
He has made various statements … that he wants to take a new leadership role in Europe [for Germany].
But that depends on many factors.
Here is his analysis:
‘We don’t know what Merz we will see’: a political analyst on the German election – video
Kate Connolly
Berlin correspondent
Leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz gestures during his speech as the screen behind reads “Political change for Germany” at the final campaign event of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union party on the eve of general elections in Munich. Photograph: Alexandra Beier/AFP/Getty Images
WHO IS THE LIKELY NEXT GERMAN CHANCELLOR?
If polls are to be believed, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is most likely to be the next chancellor of Germany.
Once sidelined by Merkel,Merz loves private planes, hates tax bureaucracy, and backs Ukraine.
He was arguably best known for his suggestion in the early 2000s that German tax rules be drastically reduced so that they fit on the back of a beer coaster. The very same coaster on which he scribbled the policy is now preserved in the archives of Germany’s House of History in Bonn.
But there is much more to him.
For example, in a spectacular gambit earlier this year, Merz attempted to wrest back control of the highly charged migration debate by passing a non-binding resolution on border security in parliament with votes from the far right – violating an unwritten rule of the post-Nazi period and prompting mass protests.
So, who is Friedrich Merz?
What is the voting system?
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
A resident casts a vote at a polling station in Berlin. Photograph: Markus Schreiber/AP
Germany has a hybrid election system in which voters cast one ballot for a candidate representing a constituency, and a second for a particular party’s list of candidates in a federal state. Only parties that win 5% of the second vote can enter parliament.
Since the 2021 election produced a bloated Bundestag of 735 seats, one of the largest parliaments in the world, a 2023 law – revised last year after a ruling by the country’s top court – has come into effect limiting the size of the new assembly to 630 seats.
The new system also aims to prioritise proportional representation, so seats will be allocated based on second votes received nationwide. If a party wins proportionally more constituency seats than its share of the national vote, some will be left vacant.
The court rejected a proposed change that it said would have disadvantaged smaller parties, so those that win at least three constituency seats will still be entitled to parliamentary seats according to their national vote even if it falls below 5%.
The combination of the 5% threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually fragmented and competitive party landscape, with many smaller parties jostling for position, means the exact makeup of the new Bundestag is particularly uncertain.
Helen Pidd
Today in Focus
A person rides a bike past an election campaign poster of Friedrich Merz, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party candidate for chancellor, the day before the parliamentary election, in Potsdam, Germany. Photograph: Liesa Johannssen/Reuters
Our Today in Focus presenter and former Berlin correspondent Helen Pidd took a road trip through Germany to find out why, and finds a country increasingly unsure of itself.
She spoke to a voter in Magdeburg, the scene of a horrific attack on a Christmas market in December, now afraid of going to public events; a newly unemployed baker in Wolfsburg toying with the idea of voting for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD); and across the country, people fearful of what the rise of the AfD means for minorities.
Here is her report in our Today in Focus podcast:
Background of line chart showing weekly polling averages of voting intention in the 2025 German federal election. A Euro coin with an eagle and surrounded by the stars of Europe is within a black silhouette of Germany. Composite: Prina Shah for the Guardian, European Central Bank
Trump’s election in November last year has – as promised – sent shockwaves round the world. But today’s German election could be almost as momentous.
Germany sits at the centre of Europe, at the centre of its trade networks, and at the centre of its politics. In part, this is because of its sheer size, but also because it has for decades been economically successful and politically stable.
Alex Clark and Seán Clarke explain why today’s vote matters so much with the help of data and visuals.
What’s at stake in this election? – expert says
Jakub Krupa
Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.
You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why Europe should take note of the vote.
Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.
The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.
Watch what he had to say:
‘It’s a decisive election’: Germans prepare to elect new chancellor – video
High turnout reported by 2pm
A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin. Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP
Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was at 52%, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.
Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, reported by Welt, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of Thuringia (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.
Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.
