Ford heads to Washington seeking a better free trade deal

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Doug Ford isn’t looking for a total solution when he heads to the White House on Thursday afternoon, but he is hoping for an opening. Ontario’s Premier was asked to come to America’s centre of power by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick after Ford moved forward with a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.

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Both Lutnick and President Donald Trump have mocked Ford and Ontario’s attempt to play hardball, with Trump dismissing the move while speaking with reporters on Wednesday.

“They withdrew their little threat,” Trump said while implying Ford backed down after Trump threatened bigger tariffs on Canadian steel.

Let’s look at the tale of the tape though.

Doug Ford threatened to place a 25% export surcharge on electricity exported to the United States. Ontario powers roughly 1.5 million homes across New York, Michigan and Minnesota and this surcharge would cost households an estimated $100 per month.

The Trump administration was elected on a promise to bring down the cost of living and with inflation still a problem, stock markets tanking and grocery costs being a pain, Ontario’s threat caught their attention.

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It’s not normal for any national government to deal with a sub-national government, which is what Ontario is. Doug Ford is not the Prime Minister of Canada, he is the Premier of Ontario and yet, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Ford asking him not to move forward with this export surcharge and offered a meeting with himself and other White House officials, including the U.S. Trade Representative.

Trump praised Ford as “a very strong man in Canada” on Tuesday before trying to belittle him on Wednesday. Ford was talked about by the American president, called out by name during the White House press briefing and repeatedly mentioned by Trump’s advisors during TV appearances.

Can anyone recall a provincial premier ever getting that kind of attention in Washington?

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It’s unheard of.

For more than 24 hours, Donald Trump and his team have been talking about Ontario and the electricity threat. They can claim it is nothing; they can claim Ford folded. They are talking about him, and they invited him for talks.

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When I visited Washington in February, Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon said that the issues Trump talks about most — where he puts his time — is what he is obsessed with, and he has put a bunch of time and effort into Canada, and Ontario in the past few days. Clearly, Ford’s moves to increase the price of electricity, maybe even cutting off exports, caught the attention of Trump and Lutnick.

So, what does Ford do now when he heads to Washington with federal Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, and others? Look for a way to give the Americans an off-ramp, a way to back away from the tariff threats on Canada without looking like they have lost the battle.

James Villeneuve, a senior business advisor at Fasken and Canada’s former consul general in Los Angeles from 2014 to 2018 has experience dealing with the Trump administration. He said, to win, Ford and LeBlanc need to give Trump and his team a way to save face.

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“The issue is to be firm; I know Doug Ford will do that, but with a spirit of ‘We want to solve this,’” Villeneuve said.

The fastest way to do that, and one both sides are talking about, is kickstarting the renegotiation of the existing free trade deal early.

“Let’s get right into it,” Villeneuve said.

Villeneuve went on to say that this kind of move would allow the Trump administration to say that they put pressure on Canada and got the kind of action they wanted to secure a better deal for the American people. It also allows all sides to start fresh and hopefully tariff free while the talks are ongoing.

Heading to the White House, or even just engaging with administration officials these days, can be fraught with danger and the unknown. Still, it must be done.

One thing Doug Ford has made clear is that if things go sideways, he’s ready and willing to bring the electricity surcharge back and shut the power off if things escalate.

Thursday will be interesting.

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