High October temperatures, along with shortages of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser, have resulted in a slow pace of plantings of wheat, mustard, chana (chickpea) and other rabi (winter-spring) season crops.
But the situation should improve, thanks to a good monsoon that has helped fill up major reservoir dams and recharge groundwater tables, and also the possibility of an extended winter from a developing La Niña.
Farmers had sown 41.30 lakh hectares (lh) area under wheat as on November 8, down from 48.87 lh for the same period of last year. Acreages were, likewise, lower in mustard (50.73 to 49.90 lh) and chana (27.42 to 24.57 lh). The Agriculture Ministry hasn’t released sowing progress figures after November 8.
Reasons for lag
Rabi plantings generally take off with potato, mustard, chana, garlic, jeera (cumin), saunf (fennel) and coriander from October to mid-November, followed by wheat in November-December and onion in December-January.
This time, the average maximum, minimum and mean temperatures over India during October were 0.68, 1.78 and 1.23 degrees Celsius respectively above normal, based on 1991-2020 data for this month. Average minimum temperatures this October were the highest since 1901 for Northwest, Central as well as South Peninsular India, as per the India Meteorological Department’s records.
Above-normal October temperatures have delayed sowings in jeera and other seed spices; the crop already sown is reported to have suffered poor germination. Seed potatoes, too, cannot sprout properly and form enough tubers if temperatures are too high. “In Uttar Pradesh, farmers normally plant from mid-October to mid-November. This season, they started only from October 20-22,” said Doongar Singh, a cold store owner at Khandauli, near Agra.
Delayed sowing – beyond the third week of October 20 – has happened also in mustard. The crop sown early is said to have faced germination issues and even bacterial rot infestation (causing stem wilting) from high temperatures in some parts.
A second reason has been DAP availability. DAP contains 46% phosphorous (P), which crops need during their early growth stage of root establishment and development. Farmers apply this fertiliser – anywhere from one 50-kg bag per acre for wheat up to three for potato – at the time of sowing along with the seeds.
The accompanying table shows both sales during April-October and November 1, 2024, opening stocks of DAP to be lower compared to last year. This is unlike urea (containing 46% nitrogen or N), muriate of potash (60% potash or K), single super phosphate (16% P and 11% sulphur or S) and complex fertilisers (which have N, P, K and S in varying proportions).
Sale and opening stock of fertilisers (lakh tonnes)
Inadequate DAP availability – manifested in long queues and staging of protests – has led to farmers delaying sowing, including of wheat, or using alternative fertilisers with lower P content, such as 20:20:0:13, 10:26:26:0, 12:32:16:0 and SSP. To what extent that would affect overall crop growth and yields remains to be seen.
The brighter side
There are, however, offsetting factors.
The most important of them is soil moisture and water availability. Surplus monsoon rains have boosted water levels in the country’s major reservoirs – to 86.7% of their full storage capacity on November 1, as against 70.5% a year ago and the 75.5 % ten-year-average for this date. Abundant water, in dams and aquifers alike, is an incentive for farmers to sow aggressively.
Secondly, temperatures have been near-normal over most parts of India since mid-November, conducive for sowings to pick up. “There were concerns when temperatures were appreciably above normal till the first fortnight of the month. But the crop has recovered and looks good now,” Pramod Kumar Rai, head of the Directorate of Rapeseed-Mustard Research at Bharatpur (Rajasthan), told The Indian Express.
Third, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a La Niña event to develop by this month and persist through January-March. La Niña – an abnormal cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru – usually brings copious rains and also colder-than-normal winters to India.
An extended winter, even from a predicted “weak” La Niña, should neutralise the impact of late sowing on crop yields. These worries especially apply to wheat, where timely sowing by mid-November allows the crop to escape the risk of March temperature surges while in the final grain-filling stage. An extended winter, courtesy of La Niña, should enable a bumper rabi harvest – as it did in 2021.
Food inflation outlook
The October consumer price index numbers were a shocker, with food inflation at 10.9% year-on-year and 42.2% for vegetables.
The latter should moderate though. Onion prices at Maharashtra’s Lasalgaon market have fallen to Rs 3,800 per quintal, from Rs 5,500-plus levels in the first half of November. That was mainly due to October rains disrupting harvesting of the kharif (monsoon) crop in Maharashtra and Karnataka. A further easing is likely with the arrival of winter vegetables – from tomatoes, carrots, cauliflower and radish to beans, spinach and capsicum. Potato may be an exception. High October temperatures and DAP shortfalls could take a toll on the tubers to be harvested towards February-March.
Pulses should also see lower inflation with the harvesting of Karnataka’s arhar (pigeon pea) crop in December and Maharashtra’s in January. A softening trend is already visible in milled urad (black gram), moong (green gram) and masoor (red lentil) dal prices.
The main commodities of concern are wheat and edible oils.
The government’s wheat stocks were at 222.64 lakh tonnes (lt) on November 1. At an average monthly depletion of 25-30 lt, the opening stocks on April 1 would be 72-98 lt, just around the normative minimum requirement of 74.6 lt. Uncertainty over the size of the crop to be harvested from April could prompt the Narendra Modi government to slash the current 40% import duty on wheat.
The same goes for edible oils. The present landed prices of imported crude palm, sunflower and soyabean oil, at $1,300, $1,250 and $1,150 per tonne respectively, are way above their corresponding year-ago levels of $900, $980 and $1,070. The basic trigger has been Indonesia’s move to implement 40% mandatory blending of palm oil in diesel starting next year, from the existing 35%. The world’s largest producer has also indicated hiking export taxes on palm oil.
With elections in Haryana and Maharashtra over (the two are major growers of wheat and soyabean respectively) and only Delhi and Bihar (both largely consuming states) scheduled to go to the polls in 2025, the Modi government probably has more political room to cut import duties in wheat and edible oils now.