Nigel Farage’s party has won councils, mayoral races and a parliamentary by-election. But could they win a general election too?
Reform has secured resounding victories across the country at the elections this week.
Nigel Farage’s party overturned a massive Labour majority to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes. But aside from gaining a new MP – it’s first in the North West – Reform has also taken control of councils for the first time, crushing the Conservatives.
Reform, which was founded as the Brexit Party in 2018 before being renamed, has won hundreds of council seats across England.
The nascent party has taken control of several councils, including Lancashire, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire and Durham.
Two Reform candidates have also been elected as the first mayors of the Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire areas.
According to the BBC, based on the local election results, if a national poll was held today Reform would win 30 per cent of the votes.
The broadcaster projected that Labour would get 20 per cent of the vote, with the Lib Dems on 17, the Tories on 16 and Greens on 11.
This suggests that Reform would win a general election and potentially secure a strong majority over other parties if it was held now .
However, local elections are not necessarily the strongest indicator of how voters would cast their ballots at a general election.
What’s more, most of the elections that took place this year have been in counties, rather than urban areas where Labour does better.
UKIP, which Mr Farage previously led, secured many council seats during their heyday and even won the European Parliament elections in 2014, beating both Labour and the Conservatives, but the party struggle to secure any seats at general elections.
Having said that, UKIP held far fewer council seats than Reform do now and the party only ever controlled one local authority.
Voters in areas where Reform have won control of the council will now have a change to judge the party’s performance in power.
Last month pollsters More In Common predicted that Reform would win 180 seats at a general election, more than any other party.
This was based on polling of more than 16,000 people which was modelled according to the demographics in each constituency.
The MRP poll predicted that nine cabinet ministers could lose their seats to Reform, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.
According to the poll, Reform would win just over half the seats in Greater Manchester, including every constituency in Bolton, Bury, Oldham and Wigan, as well as some in Rochdale and Tameside including those of cabinet ministers Lisa Nandy and Jonathan Reynolds.
The date of the next general election has not been determined yet, but it would have to take place no later than the summer of 2029.