There is a sacred mantra in Canadian politics: campaigns matter. You hear it from pundits, professors, and the guy at the back of your local Tim Hortons who thinks he’s David Akin with a double double.
And most of the time, they’re right.
But not in the way they used to be.
If the old rules still applied in 2025, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives would already be measuring the drapes in the Prime Minister’s Office. By every traditional measure, they’ve run the kind of campaign that should end in a majority. The ads have been sharp and relentless. The message has been disciplined. The tour has been gaffe-free and scandal-proof. And the crowds? Massive. These aren’t polite gatherings of party loyalists. They’re political rallies with the energy of a Tragically Hip show. The kind that makes other leaders nervous.
Meanwhile, Mark Carney and the Liberals are offering a campaign that, if we’re being generous, could be described as restrained. If we’re being honest, it has been sleepwalking. Carney is many things: accomplished, articulate, globally admired. But he is not a natural campaigner. He’s a central banker, not a street politician. In Davos, he dazzles. In a Timmins strip mall, he looks like an alien who parked his flying saucer out back.
The Liberal campaign has little spark, little urgency and little edge. It’s the political equivalent of beige wallpaper. Hard to hate. Easy to ignore.
And yet, here we are. The Liberals are not just competitive, they’re ahead. As of this week, our polling at Ipsos has them leading the Conservatives by six points. Just last week, they surged to 46 per cent, their highest number of the campaign. They’ve slipped slightly since, down to 42 percent, while the Conservatives have edged up to 36 percent. The gap is closing. But it’s still a gap.
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This should not be happening. But it is. Because what we call a “campaign” no longer functions the way it once did.
We’re in a new era. One defined not by stability, but by volatility. Loyalty is dead. Identity is fractured. This is the age of churn. Voters aren’t lining up behind parties. They’re browsing. Politics has become transactional, disposable and emotional. Less like a town hall. More like a dating app.
This isn’t campaigning. It’s speed dating.
That’s the heart of the contradiction. Campaigns still matter, but not in the old, linear, narrative-driven way. Today, it’s not about message discipline over six weeks. It’s about grabbing attention in the final 72 hours.
If one rule still holds in modern politics, it’s this: the late break decides everything.
In the past, most voters made up their minds early. Campaigns reinforced those decisions. That world is gone. Today, it’s about hesitation. Voters hold their options open until the very end. Ipsos polling shows that as many as one in 10 make their final decision on Election Day. In a close race, that’s not a rounding error. It’s the whole story.
And here’s the kicker: most polls don’t even catch it. Fieldwork usually ends a day or two before ballots are cast. And even if polling did continue right up to the wire, it wouldn’t matter because under the Canada Elections Act, it’s illegal for media outlets to publish new polling data on Election Day. So just when the story is reaching its most dramatic twist, the numbers go dark.
What about debates? They were once game changers too. And they still can be, if someone collapses, scores a knockout or goes viral. But most of the time, they land with a shrug. Viewers tune in with their minds already made up. Analysts lock in their takes before the final question. Everyone else half-watches while scrolling Instagram.
So, do campaigns matter? Yes, but not across six weeks. Only in the final stretch. Do debates matter? Sometimes, but only when they pierce the noise.
What matters now is momentum. Not the kind you plan. The kind that sneaks up. The kind that shifts quietly in conversations around kitchen tables. In the minds of voters still wavering. In the mood that turns, late and fast.
That’s where elections are won now. Not on buses or stages over weeks, but in the blur of the final hours, when perception hardens, and movement happens quietly.
So yes, Carney may have peaked. Yes, Poilievre may be closing the gap. But that doesn’t prove that campaigns matter the way they once did. It proves that timing does. That impressions form late. That the final hours are what count.
This is why Poilievre still has a path. So does Carney. But this won’t be decided by platforms or pundits or polling averages.
It will be decided by a restless electorate that hasn’t made up its mind.
Not yet.
But that moment is coming. Fast.
Darrell Bricker is Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs
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