Almost as much has been made of Cole Palmer’s recent decline as was of his grand rise.
Six months ago, Jamie Carragher anointed him the best player in the Premier League. Yet no goals since 14 January – 1145 on-pitch minutes – has attracted a gleeful pile-on.
Ignoring penalties, his expected goals (xG) for this season is actually higher than last (12.6 to 11.1), despite the drought. He has created more big chances in 2024-25 (20 to 17) but also missed more (13 to 7). He is also taking more shots on target (1.32 per 90 to 1.27).
Somewhere in here it becomes clear statistics cannot adequately explain the rot, but the problems are still clearly visible. Palmer looks miserable and preoccupied, restricted and restrained. When he posted a video of his iconic first goal against Everton on Tuesday for its anniversary, it was captioned “enjoyment”.
Even if this wasn’t a direct swipe at Enzo Maresca, it was at least a reflection on what he currently lacks. A player who depends on joy and passion seems devoid of both. His team are even attempting to trademark his celebration, because everything can be commercialised. None of this looks fun, and hasn’t throughout 2025.
A few theories as to why. One is that he is carrying a long-term niggling injury.
Another is more feasible but less quantifiable – burnout. Having played fewer than 1500 senior minutes before joining Chelsea, he has since registered 6,575 club minutes in just over 18 months, not including injury time, only missing three Premier League games.
That is without a first major tournament with England, largely spent fighting to prove his worth.
Every match is now freighted with responsibility and expectation, navigating a world and identity altering faster than he can process them. Sitting out the Conference League group stage won’t have taken the weight off his mind.
Then there is the people’s choice, that he has in some way been shackled by Maresca. The drop-off post December, correlating almost exactly with the wider team’s, is viewed as the point Maresca’s vision overtook the legacy of Mauricio Pochettino’s.
Yet underpinning all of these ideas is the consensus Palmer is no longer enjoying football. None of this is fun. His talent no longer thrills or surprises him. His lightness has become unbearable. He looks like he thinks too much, takes one too many touches, that instinctive brilliance disrupted by no longer trusting himself.
Perhaps it is the impact of being targeted and double-marked more often. He has been fouled 18 more times in the Premier League this season than in 2023-24 (54 to 36). There is less space for him, making fewer progressive carries (96 to 117) and fewer progressive receptions (159 to 195).
The awareness he will have the ball less puts more pressure on the times he does, perhaps why he is taking as many shots as he ever has, just with a far lower success rate.
In recent months he has noticeably been shooting more from outside the box, and had more shots blocked running into traffic. This is a puzzle every great attacker must solve, one which ultimately decides just how great they are.
This is not to say Palmer has already peaked. He can and hopefully will rediscover both the joy and output in his game. Eden Hazard only scored four league goals in 2015-16, then got 44 in the next three seasons. It happens.
One obvious way for Palmer to achieve that is to give him better teammates who require similar opposition attention, relieving pressure on him on both a micro and macro level. He will desperately hope Willian Estevao has the desired impact after arriving in June.
Another potential solution is a prolonged break, although there seems little risk of that. Chelsea’s season folds so seamlessly into the Club World Cup those inside the club view 2024-26 as a double season. This would have to be enforced.
Or maybe all he needs is some luck. He bettered his expected goals (minus penalties) by 1.9 last season, but is underperforming by 1.6 this year.
He created more chances than any player in Europe’s top five leagues between early December and early February. This could look different if one of those had been scored. That is the beauty of a nascent talent like Palmer’s – this glitch in the matrix could mean nothing or everything.