“A destabilization of both the political system, the business model of German industry and social cohesion cannot therefore be ruled out due to a lack of or insufficient planning security in the energy sector,” it adds.
The analysis comes amid growing concerns related to critical infrastructure risks in Europe. Since 2022, at least six separate incidents of suspected underwater sabotage have taken place in the Baltic Sea.
Meanwhile, Brussels has begun cracking down on Chinese wind suppliers after suspecting them of receiving state subsidies to beat out European competitors for European Union projects. Last year, the European Commission, the EU’s executive, opened a probe into Beijing-linked wind projects in Bulgaria, France, Greece, Romania and Spain.
Now those risks are likely to increase if ties worsen with Beijing, according to Andrea Scassola, vice president of wind research at the Rystad consultancy.
“What we are seeing … is intensifying great power rivalry, and at a time when our world is more interconnected than it has ever been — it’s a magnifier of vulnerability and risks,” he said.
Overdependence on China also raises the risk of cyberattacks that could “lead to a shutdown of production,” Scassola said, adding that similar public warnings or legal moves to restrict Beijing’s access have already taken place in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Poland and Lithuania.