Canada thought to be on Trump’s ‘Dirty 15’ list

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If misery loves company, Canada could take comfort in knowing this country and Mexico are far from the only specific targets for potential tariffs from the U.S. administration.

Perhaps you have heard the term “Dirty 15.”

It refers to countries identified by the Trump administration as having significant trade imbalances with the United States and seen to be engaging in practices perceived as unfair to U.S. trade interests.

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The label was introduced earlier this month by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as part of a broader tariff policy aimed at addressing these disparities.

Here’s what we know about the “Dirty 15” list so far.

Is there a list of included countries?

The administration hasn’t released a specific list, reports the Wall Street Journal. Instead it refers to countries characterized by:

• Trade deficits: These countries collectively account for a significant portion of the $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit.
• High tariffs on U.S. goods: Many impose duties that exceed those applied by the U.S.
• Non-tariff barriers: Examples include domestic production requirements or restrictive inspections unrelated to safety standards.
• Currency manipulation, labor practices or tax systems that distort trade dynamics.

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Which countries might be included?

Media outlets such as Fortune magazine, Newsweek and daily newspapers in Asia have examined trade data and made attempts at suggesting potential members of the “Dirty 15.” This is a National Post compilation of U.S. goods trade deficits based on 2024 figures from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (in U.S. dollars):

1. China: largest U.S. goods trade deficit with the U.S., totalling $295.4 billion
2. European Union (EU): deficit of $235.6 billion
3. Mexico: targeted due to a deficit of $171.8 billion and immigration concerns
4. Vietnam: deficit of $123.5 billion
5. Taiwan: a $73.9 billion deficit
6. Japan: a persistent trade imbalance including most recent deficit of $68.5 billion
7. Canada: deficit with U.S. of $63.3 billion
8. South Korea: deficit of $66.0 billion
9. India: high tariffs and non-tariff barriers leading to deficit of $45.7 billion
10. Thailand: deficit of $45.6 billion
11. Switzerland: deficit with Switzerland was $38.5 billion 
12. Malaysia: trade deficit of $24.8 billion
13. Australia: elevated tariffs and tax on U.S. goods with recent deficit of $17.9 billion
14. Indonesia: trade deficit with Indonesia was $17.9 billion
15. Great Britain: trade deficit of $11.9 billion

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Why is Canada thought to be included?

Canada is included in the “Dirty 15” primarily due to its significant trade relationship and perceived economic imbalances with the United States. 

As a close neighbour and one of the largest trading partners, Canada has a substantial goods trade surplus with the U.S., making it a target for reciprocal tariffs. The goods trade deficit with Canada reached $63.3 billion in 2024, slightly lower than previous years but still significant.

Historically, this imbalance has been smaller compared to deficits with other major trading partners like China or Mexico.

Canada’s energy exports to the U.S., including oil and gas, have been a contentious issue, with the U.S. imposing tariffs in response. Energy products, including crude oil and natural gas, account for the entirety of the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, totalling nearly $170 billion annually. Canadian crude is critical for U.S. refineries, especially in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure.

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Ontario supplies electricity to millions of U.S. homes, particularly in states like Michigan and New York.

Trade in the auto sector is relatively balanced due to highly integrated North American supply chains under agreements like the USMCA (formerly NAFTA). However, Canada has room to expand its auto manufacturing capacity.

The long-standing softwood lumber dispute stems from U.S. claims that Canadian timber is unfairly subsidized by provincial governments through below-market stumpage fees.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, including steel, aluminum, and energy products, citing unfair trade practices.

Why isn’t Russia included?

Russia and Iran are not central members of the “Dirty 15” due to variety of factors.

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The U.S. goods trade deficit with Russia was $2.5 billion in 2024, a 37.5 per cent decrease ($1.5 billion) over 2023.

While U.S.-Russia trade relations are at an all-time low due to sanctions related to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Trump administration has focused more on diplomatic efforts with Moscow rather than aggressive tariff measures.

Tariffs on Russia are seen as a potential negotiating tool for peace agreements rather than part of the broader “Dirty 15” framework.

Why not Iran?

The U.S. approach to Iran has been dominated by sanctions targeting its oil exports and financial networks rather than tariffs. These measures aim to isolate Iran economically and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, making sanctions a more strategic tool than reciprocal tariffs.

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Under the U.S. sanctions there are limited exceptions that allow for the sale of agricultural commodities, food, medicine, and medical devices to Iran from the United States or by U.S. persons or U.S.-owned or -controlled foreign entities, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. 

What’s next for the targeted countries?

The administration plans to announce country-specific tariffs on April 2 with some nations potentially avoiding penalties through negotiations or policy adjustments.

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