Boomers vs. Millennials, an election fought over generations

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You could describe this election as a battle between the angry millennials and the anxious boomers. Two generations voting in the same election, on different issues, and both going against type.

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In most elections in Canada, older voters cast their ballots for more conservative-leaning parties while younger voters traditionally cast their ballots for parties with liberal sensibilities.

The 2025 election looks like it will be one that flips that on its head.

Poll after poll shows that the Liberals are preferred option for voters over 55 while the Conservatives still hold a lead on Canadians under 55. In most regular elections, older voters lean towards the Conservatives while younger voters lean Liberal, and the middle is up for grabs.

It comes down to the issues that are motivating each group. While younger voters are concerned about the cost of living and about housing affordability, older voters are almost exclusively obsessed about U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariffs.

Many voters in this category, women in particular, are looking past crime, immigration, rising unemployment, housing affordability and any other domestic issues, and focusing exclusively on Trump and tariffs.

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Trump didn’t give us a 69-cent dollar, a broken immigration system and a stagnant economy – the Liberals did. But some voters appear willing to reward the Liberals — despite the last 10 years — all because of Trump.

In most elections, winning the 55-plus crowd is enough to win an election but the generational power dynamics are changing with millennials now the largest generational cohort in Canada. Apologies to my fellow GenXers, we were never the largest generation and quite frankly no party ever cared about our latch-key existence. But, we are used to that.

But starting in 2023, millennials outpaced boomers as the biggest demographic in Canada.

Looking across several polls, while 55-plus voters are all in on Carney, those aged between 18 and 54 are more likely to say they would vote Conservative. To put it in raw terms, there are roughly 18 million people aged 18-55 and 13 million who are 55 and over.

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Here’s the problem for the Conservatives, though. Younger voters are less reliable than their older counterparts in terms of making sure they get out to the polls. To put that in perspective, the most recent Abacus Data poll shows that among those 18-29, just 51% say they will definitely vote compared to 84% of those aged 60 and over.

If voters under 55 showed up in record numbers, then Pierre Poilievre with his promises of housing affordability, of making lives easier for families, would end up as Prime Minister. If it’s left to those 55 and over, who are mostly worried about their home prices and their investment portfolios, then Mark Carney will be Prime Minister, and the Liberals will rule for another four years.

If you are among the group that is sitting pretty, mostly concerned about your home value and your portfolio, know that markets bounce back but countries that start down the path of decline are more difficult to turn around. Consider voting with the interests of your children or grandchildren in mind rather than just your own economic viewpoint.

If you are under 55, find a family member or friend – maybe find several of them – and convince them to come out and vote. This is an election unlike any other and staying on the same course may make some people who are already comfortable feel better, but it won’t improve the country.

We need a change in government, not just a change in who is leading the government.

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