The recent cabinet reshuffle in Bihar highlights the evolving power dynamics within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). By inducting seven new BJP ministers, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has made room for his ally’s growing influence — a move that hints at the saffron party’s rising dominance in the coalition. While the BJP has reiterated that the upcoming elections will be fought under Nitish’s leadership, it has notably avoided declaring him as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate. This calculated ambiguity suggests the BJP is keeping its options open, potentially eyeing a larger stake in Bihar politics after elections.
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The reshuffle, seemingly to balance caste and regional equations, appears to be an attempt to fortify the NDA ahead of the polls. In Bihar, where caste remains a decisive electoral factor, the allocation of ministerial berths reflects an effort to appease key social groups. The inclusion of ministers from upper castes, OBCs, and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) underscores the NDA’s strategy to consolidate its support base across caste lines. However, the absence of representation from communities like the Yadavs and Muslims — both crucial vote banks for the Opposition — reveals the calculated caste arithmetic at play.
Adding to the complexity is the caste census issue, which has emerged as a powerful political weapon. Mahagathbandhan government under Kumar championed the caste survey, projecting himself as a leader willing to address deep-seated caste inequalities. According to the survey, Bihar’s total population stands at approximately 130.7 million. The data reveals that OBCs and EBCs collectively constitute 63.13 per cent of the population, with EBCs alone accounting for 36.01 per cent and OBCs comprising 27.12 per cent. The unreserved category represents 15.52 per cent of the populace, while Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) make up 19.65 per cent and 1.68 per cent respectively. Among specific caste groups, the Yadavs emerge as the largest group, constituting 14.27 per cent of the state’s population. Other notable communities include the Kurmis at 2.87 per cent and the Kushwahas at 4.21 per cent. In terms of religious demographics, Hindus comprise 81.99 per cent of the population, while Muslims account for 17.7 per cent.
In response, the Nitish government announced a hike in caste-based quotas, but the move was struck down by the court. The Opposition seized this opportunity to accuse the NDA of political posturing, arguing that if the alliance were truly committed to social justice, it could have placed the increased quota in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution to shield it from judicial review. This development has put pressure on the BJP, which has historically been cautious about caste-based mobilisation, to navigate the growing call for social justice without alienating its core upper-caste supporters.
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Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the RJD and Congress, is preparing to mount a formidable challenge, hoping to capitalise on the findings of the caste census. Tejashwi has framed the upcoming election as a battle for social justice, vowing to advocate for proportional representation and the welfare of marginalised communities. He has emphasised public discontent over unemployment, inadequate educational infrastructure, and deteriorating law and order, turning these issues into a powerful political narrative and positioning himself as a leader of change.
As Bihar heads towards a fiercely contested election, both the ruling NDA and the Opposition INDIA bloc are grappling with internal fractures. Nitish Kumar, who has ruled the state for nearly two decades, faces the challenge of managing an increasingly ambitious BJP, addressing rising caste-based demands, and countering accusations of a development deficit despite his long tenure. His image as a “paltu ram” — a leader who frequently switches political alliances — adds to the scepticism surrounding his leadership. Meanwhile, Tejashwi has the difficult task of holding the fragile Opposition coalition together and translating social justice rhetoric into electoral success.
The outcome of Bihar’s election will not only shape the state’s future but will have larger national implications. With caste politics back at the forefront and alliances shifting, it is set to be a crucial test for both regional and national players. The state’s voters, caught between promises of development and the politics of identity, hold the key to determining whether Nitish retains his grip on power, whether the BJP replicates its Maharashtra strategy to claim dominance, or whether Tejashwi emerges as the face of a new Bihar.
The writer is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh