I recently found myself rereading When the Wind Blows, Raymond Briggs’ graphic novel about the effects of nuclear war. For anyone who isn’t aware of the book, I would heartily recommend it, though be warned, it’s a harrowing read. The final pages, where Jim and Hilda are hiding under a blanket in their makeshift fallout shelter while slowly succumbing to radiation poisoning, will stay with me forever.
It led me to reflect on one of the most surprising features of the last eighty years – namely, that so few states have developed nuclear weapons of their own. Now, as the current international order is being torn-up, the threat of widespread nuclear proliferation, and the dangers that come with it, has once again raised its ugly head.
Nine counties currently possess nuclear weapons, with North Korea the last to join the group in 2006. There are another ten to twenty “threshold” states (such as Germany and Japan) which possess much of the knowledge and skills to make their own bombs, but have yet to do so. As the existing global system continues to unravel, however, many of these threshold states may conclude that full-blown membership of the nuclear club is the only way to go.
Recent history sadly supports such a negative conclusion. The collapse of the Soviet Union meant that the newly independent Ukraine was left owning a large number of nuclear weapons. In 1994, under pressure from the West, Ukraine agreed to hand these weapons over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from the other nuclear armed states. Former President Bill Clinton later expressed regret for his role in pushing through this deal, saying “that Russia [would not] have pulled this stunt if Ukraine still had their weapons”.
In the same vein, both Saddam Hussein’s and Colonel Gaddafi’s brutal regimes gave up their nuclear weapons programmes, only to later be attacked and deposed by Western states. By contrast, the Kim family still continue to rule nuclear armed North Korea to this day. While there are many differences between these countries and regimes, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that having nuclear weapons buys you security.
In Europe, the threat of invasion and subjugation by Russia, combined with increasing American ambivalence, is already pushing Poland to reconsider its stance on nuclear weapons. As its President Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament in March this year, “[we] must achieve the most modern capabilities even in nuclear weapons.”
If Poland decides to develop their own bomb, then this will likely push other European states like Germany, Italy and the Netherlands to follow suit. Meanwhile, in East Asia, Japan and South Korea may also conclude that America’s nuclear umbrella is not quite as reliable as it once was, and look at their own options. Even Canada may question whether getting their own bomb might be a cost effective way to stand up to bullying from America.
The first new country to go nuclear will likely set off a domino effect, with many others quickly following suit. While no one wants to face international condemnation and diplomatic retaliation by going first, whoever braves it will almost certainly create a diplomatic slip-stream, making it easier for others to follow.
America pulling back from Europe could also re-open historic rivalries and tensions within the regions. Without Uncle Sam to keep the peace, countries might start to look at their neighbourhood in a very different light. If Poland went nuclear, for example, would Germany be happy to be flanked by nuclear powers on either side without a bomb of their own?
This should concern us all. The more countries that have nuclear weapons, the more chance that they will be used in anger. And the bigger risk of accidents or miscalculations. There were a number of times during the Cold War where one side mistakenly thought they were under attack, and came terrifyingly close to launching a response.
While Trump’s America appears increasingly unconcerned by most of the rest of world, it should be scared by the threat of proliferation. Radiation doesn’t respect national boundaries, and can impact areas many thousands of miles away. After the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, elevated levels of radioactive caesium and iodine were found in farms as far away as Wales.
And the more people who possess the practical knowledge of how to make nuclear bombs, the greater chance of this information falling into the wrong hands. The Pakistani scientist A Q Khan not only helped his own country develop a bomb, but also reportedly sold his expertise to Iran and North Korea, helping them develop their own weapons. While Al-Qaeda may not pose the same level of threat it once did, it is still determined to do America harm, and would be very interested in acquiring a bomb.
The world should be deeply worried about the prospect of more states joining the nuclear club, and the domino effect this could create. America may quite rightly not want to keep paying for the world’s security, but it has a strong self-interest in stopping the spread of nukes. Maybe next time Starmer or Macron are in Washington D.C. they should give Trump a copy of When the Wind Blows.