This article originally appeared in the Toronto Sun.
By Joseph Varner, July 31, 2025
The push by Western and Arab governments to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state may be framed as a diplomatic breakthrough — but in truth, it is a reckless gambit that risks triggering the next regional war.
Canada, much of the Western world, and key Arab states are falling over themselves to recognize an independent Palestinian state, with France and Saudi Arabia having championed an international conference to fast-track recognition. Seventeen states including Canada agreed to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada would recognize an independent Palestinian State in September if the Palestinian Authority Undertook key reforms.
But let us not rewrite history. The Palestinians have been offered statehood repeatedly — by the British in 1936, again in 1938, through the UN partition plan of 1947-48, at Camp David in 2000 by U.S. President Bill Clinton, and in 2008 by U.S. President Barack Obama, including a capital in East Jerusalem. Each time, the offers were flatly rejected. Not because they were insufficient — but because they required the Palestinians to accept the existence of a Jewish state alongside them.
The truth is that every offer failed on the same point: Palestinian leadership and their Arab patrons have never truly supported a two-state solution. Their non-negotiable position remains the erasure of Israel. Yes, the Palestinian Authority (PA) maintains a bureaucratic façade of statehood. But in practical terms, Mahmoud Abbas’ regime exists only because of Israeli intelligence support, the IDF’s containment of Hamas, and the steady drip of foreign aid. Abbas has held onto the presidency since 2005 — an unprecedented 20-year “four-year term” — not through democratic legitimacy but by blocking elections. Why? Because, were a vote held today, Hamas would win handily.
Indeed, Abbas already lost the 2006 parliamentary elections. Hamas did not just win in Gaza — they won the West Bank as well. In the aftermath, Hamas seized Gaza in a violent coup and purged Fatah. The only reason the West Bank did not follow is because Israel intervened to prop up Abbas. The fiction of Abbas as the legitimate Palestinian leader continues not because he commands the respect of his people, but because the world has no better alternative. Hamas certainly does not recognize him — and would almost certainly assassinate him if given the chance, as they’ve attempted in the past.
The Palestinians, particularly Hamas and their Iranian patrons, do not seek peace through borders. They seek victory through elimination. The “solution” they envision is not two states living side-by-side — it is a single Palestinian-Islamist entity from the river to the sea, built on the ashes of Israel.
Look at the map. Israel is already surrounded by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza, Hezbollah to the north in Lebanon, Islamist militias operating in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran, the architect and financier of all of them.
Israel is in an ongoing war with this network — a war that intensified with the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas massacre and has not abated since. The Israeli military is stretched, the Iron Dome is tested daily, and civilian centres remain under threat from drone and rocket attacks.
Recognizing a Palestinian state today is not the establishment of a peaceful, sovereign neighbour — it is enabling an Iranian forward base. In a heartbeat, Hamas would consolidate power. That government would be Islamist, militant, and hostile. It would welcome IRGC trainers, missiles, jihadis, and terror commanders to Israel’s very doorstep. The consequences would be catastrophic. It would not be peace. It would be war — pre-positioned, well-armed, and backed by Tehran. October 7th would become a footnote in comparison. The Kingdom of Jordan — long despised by the IRGC — would likely collapse under Iranian pressure. The Hashemite regime would fall. And the region would ignite in flames. This is not speculation. It is the security reality known intimately in Jerusalem, Washington, and yes — Tehran.
To recognize a Palestinian state today is not to plant the seeds of peace — it is to light the fuse beneath an Israeli-Iranian powder keg.
Joseph B. Varner is a senior fellow at the Macdonald Laurier Institute.