The tens of thousands of fans filing into Koshien baseball stadium near Osaka are more grateful than usual for the freebies handed out at the entrance: floppy sun hats bearing the logo of the Hanshin Tigers, the baseball team they are about to watch play their rivals from Tokyo, the Yomiuri Giants, on a clammy July evening.
Spectators in seats in the steeply tiered bleachers waft uchiwa fans to cool their faces while vendors skipping up and down rows of steps do a roaring trade in cold beer and soft drinks.
Watching Japanese baseball at Koshien at this time of the year has never been for the faint-hearted: the humidity and heat are as much a part of the occasion as strikes and stolen bases.
But the climate crisis threatens to cause more than just a few hours of discomfort for the almost 50,000 spectators inside Koshien.
As Japan sweltered through unusually high early-July temperatures, concern is growing for the health of millions of schoolchildren who play outdoor sports, after a grim forecast outlined in a recent report.
If global heating continues at its current rate, it will pose an existential threat to sports at the grassroots level, raising the risk that future generations of children in Japan will be denied the exercise they need for their health and physical development.
As soon as 2060, summer temperatures will reach levels high enough to prevent children from taking part in extracurricular outdoor sports in most parts of the country, according to predictions by the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Waseda University in Tokyo.
Ice baths and shorter matches
Early next month, the Tigers will vacate Koshien to make way for 49 teams of teenage boys competing in the prestigious summer high school baseball championships, watched by supporters from across the country and by millions live on TV.
With just weeks to go before the opening pitch, the 15-day contest promises to be a battle of stamina as well as skill due to the extreme heat.
Organisers of school sports competitions are already taking action to protect young athletes, including rules halting or suspending games when temperatures soar, and changing the location or date of tournaments. Other measures include shorter match times, regular drinks breaks, shaded rest areas and even ice baths.
Last year the national high school football tournament was moved to Hokkaido – Japan’s northernmost prefecture – for girls and to Fukushima, also in the north, for boys.
Two years ago, organisers of the Koshien baseball tournament introduced cooling-off periods midway through each match and, last year, divided some of the schedule into morning and late afternoon games to avoid the hottest part of the day. The opening ceremony for next month’s tournament will be held in the late afternoon for the first time.
Other sports administrators are following suit. Organisers of the national high school athletics championships are considering limiting contests to the mornings and evenings to ensure the event can continue to be held in the summer. “In the worst-case scenario, lives could be at stake,” Hiromichi Tasaki, executive director of the Japan Association of Athletics Federations, told the Yomiuri Shimbun recently.
Although the environmental studies institute’s report focuses on schoolchildren, professional sport is also reeling from the effects of Japan’s scorching hot summers.
Southern cities worst affected
In early July, the Welsh men’s rugby team lost to Japan in a match played in Kitakyushu in the south-west, with the home side’s captain, Michael Leitch, suggesting the “blowing” visitors had withered in the heat. That is despite three-minute water breaks in each half and an extended half-time interval of 20 minutes, with players wearing ice caps to prevent overheating.
Researchers at the environmental institute based their scenario for school sports on weather data across 842 locations in Japan over the past 12 years.
In a projections for the 2060s to 2080s that supposes fossil fuel use will continue at current rates, six out of eight regions will experience temperatures requiring the cancellation of school sports club activities, while four regions would have to suspend all outdoor activities, the report says. Five would still need to limit vigorous exercise even if CO2 emissions are significantly reduced, it added.
Takahiro Oyama, a researcher in biometeorology at the institute’s Center for Climate Change Adaptation, says the intense summer heat would make high-intensity outdoor sports “increasingly difficult”, particularly in urban locations and regions in the south of the country.
An estimated 5,000 instances of heatstroke are reported in Japanese primary, junior high and high schools every year, according to the education ministry – the majority of them associated with extracurricular sports.
Japan’s meteorological agency urged people last week to take extra precautions to protect their health, fearing a repeat of last year, when a record 100,000 people were taken to hospital between May and September suffering serious heatstroke symptoms.
“Climate change will alter the seasonal, time-of-day and intensity conditions under which outdoor sports are held, but it won’t eliminate them entirely,” Oyama says.
“As more people seek indoor activities, we must also monitor the indirect impacts, such as reduced physical activity and associated risks” on children’s physical and mental health.